Weekly Writ 9/25: More three-way battles to come
Weekly Writ 9/25: More three-way battles to come
After LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, where else might we see three-cornered fights?
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The byelection in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun was remarkable not only for the Liberals’ stunning defeat, but also that there were three parties in serious contention to come out on top.
Where else in Canada might we find a three-cornered fight when the next general election rolls around?
Of course, the circumstances of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun were somewhat unique. The Liberals lacked an incumbent, the Bloc Québécois out-performed early expectations and the New Democrats had the best-known candidate on the ballot. There’s no guarantee that the same set of circumstances will play out in the next general election and, considering its history and demographic profile, LaSalle–Émard–Verdun might not prove to be a three-way race again next time.
But there are a number of other ridings that more than two parties would likely be contesting if an election were held today.
The seat-by-seat projections behind the Poll Tracker (available for subscribers here) classify ridings according to a number of categories. Those that are the toughest to call are labeled as tosses. Beyond LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, there are three other ridings where three different parties get the “toss” label:
Louis-Hébert: This Quebec City riding has been held by the Liberals’ Joël Lightbound since 2015. It’s often a three-way race, as in four of the last five elections three parties have secured at least 20% of the vote here. The projection model currently puts the Conservatives narrowly ahead with 30%, followed by the Liberals and Bloc at 28% apiece.
Kingston and the Islands: This might come as a surprise as the Liberals have held this Ontario riding since 1988. But the third-place finisher here (either the NDP or Conservatives) has averaged just under 20% since 2004. With Liberal numbers tanking in Ontario, Conservative numbers rising and the NDP holding relatively steady, this could be up for grabs. The model gives the Conservatives a small advantage with 33%, followed by the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 29%.
Thunder Bay–Superior North: Patty Hajdu could be in trouble in this Northern Ontario seat. Her vote share has dropped in the last two elections as the gap between first and third has shrunk from 27.6 points in 2015 to 16.5 points in 2021. The NDP has held this part of the province before and there are signs that the Conservatives could be replicating Doug Ford’s gains in the north, putting this seat in play. As it stands, the Conservatives are narrowly favoured with 33% in the model, followed by the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 29%.
Those aren’t the only potential three-way contests. There are five other ridings where two parties are considered to be in toss-up territory while the third party’s chances are labelled as “possible”. These are:
Hochelaga–Rosemont East: In this Montreal riding, the Bloc and Liberals are neck-and-neck. The NDP is further back in third, but could pull off an upset if either the Liberals or Bloc under-perform.
Québec Centre: Jean-Yves Duclos of the Liberals has to worry about the Bloc first and foremost in this downtown Quebec City riding, but he can’t discount the Conservatives.
London Centre: London is usually a three-way battle, and that could be the case in the central riding in the city. As it stands, the NDP and Conservatives are contesting the seat, with the Liberals just on the outside looking in.
Vancouver Centre: Hedy Fry can’t take this seat for granted. The Liberals have come down so much, and the Conservatives have risen so high in British Columbia that even a riding like Vancouver Centre could turn blue. But the NDP is also in the running if the Liberal vote collapses.
Vancouver Granville: The Conservatives took 26% of the vote here in 2015 and 27% in 2021. They do not need a big boost to get into the mid-30s required to win this seat. But the NDP, which finished a close second last time, is also in contention, even if the new boundaries are worse for the party than the old ones.
The list of potential three-way races does not end here — there are a number of ridings classified as “leaning” to one party or another with at least two other parties in contention. But these eight ridings (plus LaSalle–Émard–Verdun) are the best bets for being nail-biters on election night.
Important programming note: As I will be away early next week, both the Election Writ and Weekly Writ will be on hiatus until the week of October 7. I still hope to have a podcast episode for you next Friday, however. Thank you for your understanding!
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on the results of the Bay of Quinte byelection that might have put a scare into the Ontario PCs, Pablo Rodriguez’s bid for the QLP leadership, a new party logo drops and one jurisdiction takes a tangible step toward electoral reform.
Polls show Liberal support down in urban centres. Plus, new numbers out of Saskatchewan and Ontario and findings on Canadians’ views on immigration.
Kamala Harris continues to narrowly lead in the U.S. election projection.
Doug Ford would win another majority but Bonnie Crombie would sit across the aisle from him if the election were held today.
Islanders reject “big city zip” in the #EveryElectionProject.
A milestone for François Legault.