Weekly Writ 9/11: Monday's byelection scenarios
Gaming out the different outcomes of the byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
The outcomes of Monday’s two byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona could have important repercussions for how the rest of the political year plays out — for all four major parties.
That’s one of the reasons why the contests are so fascinating. The Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois all have some stakes across the two byelections. The Liberals and Bloc are in contention in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona and the NDP in both.
On Monday morning, I’ll set the polling benchmarks for each of the parties and we’ll parse through the results in the following days. But today, let’s game out the six different plausible outcomes and what they could mean going forward.
Incumbents hold both
In most byelections, this is the safest bet to make. But it might be the most surprising outcome in this case. This is not the ideal result for any party, but it would mean that both the NDP and Liberals would breathe a sigh of relief. For Justin Trudeau, holding LEV could take some of the pressure off of his leadership. The NDP would be disappointed to come up short in LEV, but a win in ET would be a good enough outcome. This is the status quo result in every sense — nothing would likely change going forward if the two incumbent parties hold their seats.
NDP wins both seats
The dream scenario for the New Democrats, as it validates their decision to withdraw from their deal with the Liberals and gives them a (likely false) hope that another Orange Wave could crest over Quebec. It could embolden them to vote against the government and precipitate an election. While a stinging defeat for the Liberals in a stronghold riding, they could convince themselves this was a Craig Sauvé (NDP candidate) victory rather than a Liberal defeat. Trudeau’s leadership put in danger.
Conservatives win ET, NDP wins LEV
The NDP could take the wrong lesson out of a result like this. A win in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will largely be due to the local popularity of Sauvé, so the NDP believing they can offset losses like Elmwood–Transcona with gains in Quebec is likely to be proven wrong. The NDP is in far greater danger of losing many Elmwood–Transconas to the Conservatives than they are likely to win more LaSalle–Émard–Verduns from the Liberals. A Liberal loss in a key Montreal riding coupled with another sign that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are on the march increases the focus on Trudeau’s leadership.
Conservatives win ET, Liberals hold LEV
This is the worst possible outcome for the New Democrats. Ripping up the deal with the Liberals doesn’t help them hold off the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona. Their inability to win in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun puts Jagmeet Singh’s leadership in danger and likely ensures the NDP does not vote to defeat the government in the House of Commons. The instability it could cause the NDP makes this the best outcome for the Liberals. Plus, Trudeau’s leadership would likely be safe. But that, along with their gaining a seat, makes this a good result for the Conservatives, too.
NDP wins ET, Bloc wins LEV
Perhaps the worst outcome for the Liberals. The NDP gets validation for withdrawing from the CASA in Elmwood–Transcona and the Bloc is emboldened to demand more from the government, or defeat it, because of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. Trudeau’s leadership is perhaps in the greatest danger with this scenario, as Quebec Liberals would rightfully worry about losing their seats to the Bloc, a more threatening opponent than the NDP.
Conservatives win ET, Bloc wins LEV
This is the maximum-chaos scenario. Both Singh and Trudeau could find themselves in leadership danger as their parties lose seats they won by huge margins in the last election. While throwing both the Liberals and NDP into turmoil, this result might also ensure there is no election in the foreseeable future as the two parties share the same incentive to survive for now, with hopes that somehow things might get better later.
There will be more to the results than just winners and losers, of course. Holds by the New Democrats and Liberals in one or both ridings could still be problematic if the margins are close and/or support for the incumbent parties drops significantly. The Conservatives and Bloc only need to increase their support in order to avoid a bad night — wins are bonuses for both parties, as they finished distant seconds in these ridings (the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona, the Bloc in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun) in 2021.
So, on Monday night join me and
for the hottest of takes as we watch the results pour (or trickle) in. The show will start on YouTube at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT when the polls close. And, this time, we’ll stay on until we have a result! (Probably.)Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of changes within the Liberal Party, a New Democrat making the jump from Queen’s Park to the national scene and an upcoming byelection in Halifax.
A new poll suggests the NDP got no early bump from pulling out of its deal with the Liberals.
Donald Trump whittles down the gap with Kamala Harris in the U.S. election projection.
The Liberals would take another hit in the seat count if the election were held today.
Frank McKenna’s third straight win in the #EveryElectionProject.
A milestone for Wab Kinew.