Weekly Writ 8/21: Box-checking vs. seat-flipping
Weekly Writ 8/21: Box-checking vs. seat-flipping
And is there a future for the Canadian Future Party?
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
Party leaders’ summer tours are like a Rorschach test. Look hard enough and you can see a cunning strategy behind every visit.
In reality, though, some visits have less import than others.
Take, for example, the recent visits of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh to Prince Edward Island.
Both leaders were in the province over the last week, pressing the flesh and giving interviews to local media. But the two visits were very different.
Speaking with the CBC, Singh said how he tries to visit as many parts of the country as he can over the summer. There’s an element of box-checking in some of these visits, and that is likely what is behind his trip to Prince Edward Island.
The New Democrats have never won a seat in P.E.I. Their best performance in 2021 came in Charlottetown, where the NDP managed 10.7% of the vote. The party simply isn’t in play in the province. But, at the very least, Singh can say he stopped by to meet some Islanders. Box checked.
There’s more method to Poilievre’s stop.
The Liberals have dominated P.E.I. over the last three elections, winning all four of the province’s seats by comfortable margins. But each riding has voted Conservative before, though only in Egmont has a win been somewhat recent. The party won that seat in 2008 and 2011, but you have to go back to 1984 to find the last time Cardigan, Malpeque and Charlottetown were painted blue.
It’s very likely that much more of Prince Edward Island will vote Conservative in the next election. The Conservatives and Liberals have traded about 13 or 14 points in Atlantic Canada, meaning any riding the Liberals won by less than 26 to 28 points is up for grabs. Every seat on Prince Edward Island fits the bill — the Liberals won Cardigan by about 20 points, Charlottetown by 16 points, Egmont by 15 points and Malpeque by just nine.
Adding to the challenge the Liberals face is that the Conservatives will have two former provincial PC cabinet ministers on the ballot: James Aylward in Cardigan and Jamie Fox in Malpeque.
So, Poilievre’s visit isn’t just box-checking. Unlike Singh, he has a very real chance of flipping seats on Prince Edward Island. Giving a little province a little attention won’t hurt.
Speaking of which, we’ll be doing a livestream of the Waterford Valley byelection results tomorrow night on YouTube! Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on Thursday at 6:30 PM ET / 8:00 PM NT for some live analysis of this Newfoundland and Labrador provincial byelection. Will Andrew Furey’s Liberals lose their third in a row, or will they hold on? You can tune-in to the livestream here:
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on a resignation in Ontario by a member of Doug Ford’s cabinet, a Liberal MP not running for re-election in New Brunswick and the launch of the Canadian Future Party. What kind of future might it have?
Polls show tight races in New Brunswick and British Columbia, while we get some updates on national voting intentions and where things stand in Alberta.
Kamala Harris increases her lead over Donald Trump in the U.S. election projection.
Majorities for Pierre Poilievre, David Eby and Danielle Smith if the election were held today, and a tie in New Brunswick.
Joey Smallwood takes on John Diefenbaker in the 1959 Newfoundland election in the #EveryElectionProject.