Weekly Writ 8/14: Is Quebec about to flip?
One poll has the Conservatives neck-and-neck with the Bloc.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
There’s nothing like a surprising poll result to make politicos sit up. A survey published by Abacus Data this past week did just that.
The national results were fairly typical, with the Conservatives holding a 20-point lead over the Liberals (43% to 23%). But it was the regional sample in Quebec that got people talking.
Abacus gave the Conservatives the edge with 31%, putting them narrowly ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 30%. The Liberals trailed in third with 24%, followed by the New Democrats at 12%.
A one-point gap out of a sample of about 350 people (regional sample sizes weren’t provided in Abacus’s report) is statistically insignificant, but it is symbolically important and certainly noticeable.
(It is not, as I heard in some quarters, the first poll to show the Conservatives ahead in Quebec. Two IVR polls conducted last fall had the Conservatives in front.)
There has definitely been a trend developing in Abacus’s polls. The Conservatives were at 21% in Quebec in May, 22% and 23% in June, 24% (and 19%) in July and now 31% in August.
It’s safe to say that the Conservatives might be making inroads in Quebec, but obviously some caution needs to be exercised when talking about a single regional sample — which Abacus’s David Coletto also emphasised on his Substack. The Conservatives have seen spikes in Quebec before, as Abacus had the party at 26% and 28% back in April. Other pollsters, such as Léger (24% at the end of last month) and Nanos Research have not shown the Conservatives with as much strength as this.
But it is a bit besides the point to quibble over whether or not the Conservatives are leading in Quebec. They usually poll somewhere in the mid-20s, which naturally should produce some results around the 30% mark from time-to-time, simply due to the sample sizes. In all likelihood, this survey is just at the higher end of their normal range. However, it wasn’t long ago that the Conservatives’ normal range was far lower and that they were lucky to crest 20% support in the province. Things have changed.
Coletto theorizes that the Conservatives could be making hay on the issue of immigration, as the party leads by a significant margin among Quebecers who prioritize immigration as an issue. It’s something to watch — though it also should be noted that the Conservatives are doing even better among non-Quebecers who prioritize immigration as a top issue.
But what about the Liberals? Are they in trouble at 24% in Quebec?
They are — but that’s not new. Polls have now routinely put them in the mid-20s in Quebec, with the 30% mark that used to be a low bar to clear becoming a very rare one to beat. The danger is if their numbers continue to slide, as even at these levels of support Quebec would represent a disproportionate share of the Liberals’ surviving caucus. Dropping any further might even put a second-place finish in the seat count in doubt.
And changes could be coming in Quebec. While the Conservatives rise and begin to target the Bloc, the Liberals also have a provincial leadership contest that could shake things up. More on the below.
But first, here is what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on the Quebec Liberal leadership race as a few more candidates start kicking the tires, and what it could mean for Justin Trudeau.
Polls show tight races ahead of the two provincial elections in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
Kamala Harris moves ahead in the fight for the White House in the U.S. election projection.
Majorities for Pierre Poilievre, David Eby and Scott Moe if the elections were held today.
Setting up next month’s federal byelection in Elmwood–Transcona.
The 1908 Saskatchewan election in the #EveryElectionProject.