Weekly Writ 7/31: Last chance byelections?
The Liberals' next date with voters is set for September 16.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
Just a few days after naming their candidate for the riding of Elmwood–Transcona, on Sunday the Liberals went ahead and set the date for two byelections for September 16. In addition to the vote in that Winnipeg riding, a byelection will also be held in Montreal’s LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
Could these byelections be Justin Trudeau’s last chance to right the good ship Liberal?
The choice of date is an interesting one. The byelection date for LaSalle–Émard–Verdun had to be set by July 30, so the Liberals waited until nearly the last minute before dropping the writ. Elmwood–Transcona did not have to be called until the end of September, but the Liberals decided to combine the two contests.
They are going to be long byelection campaigns — about as long as they get. The length of byelection campaigns is normally 36 days, which would have set the date as September 2. That’s Labour Day, so not a great option. Voting on September 9 would have meant holding advance polling over the Labour Day weekend. That leaves September 16, making for a 49-day byelection campaign, just one day short of the limit.
It’s possible the choice of date is no more complicated than the Liberals trying to avoid the long weekend. But it does put off until the very last legally-allowed moment what could prove to be a very tough test for Trudeau in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
Hence, perhaps, the calling of Elmwood–Transcona at the same time. Let’s get one thing straight: the Liberals are not in the running in Elmwood–Transcona and have absolutely no chance of winning it. (And, while we’re at it, let’s make another thing clear: the same applies to the Conservatives in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. They won’t win it, or even come close.)
Instead, the New Democrats are under pressure in Elmwood–Transcona, a traditionally friendly riding that is nevertheless a blue-orange contest. If the NDP loses in Elmwood–Transcona, it might blunt the news of a loss by the Liberals in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. Having both byelections at the same time might also stretch NDP resources. It is the only party in contention in both seats, whereas the Liberals (and Bloc) can concentrate on LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and the Conservatives on Elmwood–Transcona.
Regardless of the strategy behind the byelection calendar (the Liberals opted not to fill the vacancy in Cloverdale–Langley City, a B.C. seat they will almost certainly lose), the voting could be a make-or-break moment for Trudeau.
He’s survived the defeat in Toronto–St. Paul’s so far. But another defeat in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun could be fatal to his leadership, if it already isn’t on death’s door. A win in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun might silence some of his critics, at least enough for Trudeau to muddle through the fall. A defeat, though, will mean there will be only one topic of discussion in Ottawa: Trudeau’s future.
(The byelections are being held on the same day that the House of Commons is scheduled to return from its summer recess. Unlike after Toronto–St. Paul’s, Trudeau, his cabinet and his caucus won’t find it as easy to stay away from journalists’ microphones.)
But if the Liberals are being realistic, they must realize that their byelection performances are only a symptom of a much bigger problem. A win in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun won’t solve that problem.
Consider the following chart. It comes from Abacus Data and shows Justin Trudeau’s positive and negative impression ratings since 2015. The trend line has been amazingly consistent, with a few exceptions. His ratings worsened after his trip to India in early 2018 and fell again in the aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair. The rally-round-the-flag effect of the pandemic in 2020 improved Trudeau’s ratings.
But if we take those events out of the equation, we see that Trudeau’s personal numbers have deteriorated in a virtually continuous manner. In the Abacus chart below, I’ve added some straight lines running from Trudeau’s post-2015 honeymoon to today:
This tells me that Trudeau’s image has worsened simply as a result of his being prime minister for nearly a decade. It’s the wear-and-tear of being in office, and a consistent and long-standing trend like this can’t be easily reversed. It’ll take an event outside of Trudeau’s control — like the pandemic in 2020 — to jolt his numbers. The ability of Trudeau and the Liberals to move these numbers themselves seems very, very limited. They need some help from the outside, but hoping for a deus ex machina is not a plan.
Winning or losing in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun won’t change things on this score. A win could give Trudeau the time to hope for something to come along and improve his chances. A defeat, though, could be the last straw.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on some fundraising figures from the second quarter of 2024 and how Andrew Furey’s Liberals have set the date for another tough byelection test in Newfoundland and Labrador. Plus, two more MPs opt not to run again and another BCU MLA decides to switch to the Conservatives.
Are the polls finally converging in B.C.? Plus, new federal and Ontario provincial numbers.
My first projection for the U.S. election, which will be updated every Wednesday in the Weekly Writ until November.
Majorities for Pierre Poilievre, Doug Ford and David Eby if the elections were held today.
Waterford Valley district profile ahead of the August 22 byelection.
The rise of Bill Vander Zalm in the #EveryElectionProject.
Another milestone for Justin Trudeau.