Weekly Writ 7/24: Poilievre, Singh target northern Ontario
Plus, what the polls say about Harris vs. Trump (not much, yet).
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
Northern Ontario has only nine ridings after losing one seat in the last redistribution, but the region is unlikely to receive fewer visits from party leaders as a result.
That’s because it is still a key battleground for all three major parties.
It’s no coincidence, then, that Jagmeet Singh was visiting Cochrane and Timmins this week, or that Pierre Poilievre is scheduled to take a tour of the region with events in Fort Frances, Wawa, Hearst, Kirkland Lake and Elliot Lake next week.
The Conservatives know that they can make some gains in the region, particularly as support for the Liberals slumps in Ontario. They also have an NDP seat to target: the riding currently represented by Charlie Angus, who isn’t running again. The New Democrats have to play defense, but they might also hope to pick up some of the pieces from the Liberals’ collapse.
Let’s take a look at the seats that are up for grabs.
Every so often in the Weekly Writ, I take a deep dive into one region of the country and how it is shaping up ahead of the next federal election, using my model from the If The Election Were Held Today section of the newsletter to classify seats as as likely, lean or toss-up. A riding that is projected to be a likely win for a party is one in which the party is projected to lead by 15 points or more. A ‘lean’ is a riding with a margin of between five and 15 points, while a toss-up is a riding with a margin of less than five points. In the chart below, the little boxes next to each riding denote which party won them in 2021.
The Conservatives can count on holding Kenora–Kiiwetinoong and Parry Sound–Muskoka. They are also likely safe in Sault Ste. Marie–Algoma. The Conservatives didn’t win Sault Ste. Marie in 2021, but did win the most votes within the new boundaries of Sault Ste. Marie–Algoma. With their support trending up across the country, losing anything they did win or would have won in 2021 is unlikely.
Nipissing–Timiskaming is another likely pick-up for the Conservatives, especially since Anthony Rota is not running for re-election.
There are three seats that are estimated to be leaning Conservative: the two seats in the Sudbury region and Thunder Bay–Rainy River. What’s notable about these three seats is that while they voted Liberal in 2021, the NDP is projected to be running in second in all three. The New Democrats won seats in both Sudbury and Thunder Bay in 2008 and 2011, so it is not implausible that they could return to the region if the Conservatives falter but the Liberals do not pick up the slack.
Nevertheless, the Conservatives are in a good position to pick up these three seats. In addition to Nipissing–Timiskaming, that makes four gains for the Conservatives in northern Ontario, plus the notional hold in Sault Ste. Marie–Algoma.
Two seats look like real toss-ups at the moment. Kapuskasing–Timmins–Mushkegowuk, the successor to Angus’s Timmins–James Bay riding, could be tight between the NDP and the Conservatives. The Ontario PCs made a splash by winning Timmins in the 2022 provincial election (along with one of the Thunder Bay ridings), and the federal Conservatives will be looking to build on that success. The retirement of Angus will probably make it tougher for the NDP to hold.
Thunder Bay–Superior North is another toss-up, but this is the only seat in the region where the Liberals are projected to be in contention. That makes it a three-way race, with potentially any party being able to win it with about one-third of the vote. This has traditionally been a Liberal-NDP contest, but if the Conservatives manage to come up the middle it would be historic — the Conservatives haven’t won in this part of northern Ontario since 1930.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of MPs not running for re-election (and what that means for their parties’ chances), candidates named ahead of upcoming byelections, a floor-(re-)crossing in Newfoundland and Labrador and a return to a state of turmoil in the federal Green Party.
Polls that I missed over the last few weeks — and the first U.S. election update!
221 seats for the Conservatives if the election were held today, plus updates to the B.C. and Alberta projections.
Riding profile for Saanich North and the Islands, where the Greens will be playing defence in the next B.C. election.
A change election in the midst of a cost of living crisis more than a century ago in the #EveryElectionProject.
IN THE NEWS
More MPs declare they’re out of the running for next time
A trio of MPs announced over the last few weeks that they won’t be running again in the next federal election. Two of those retirements could have a real impact on the Liberals’ chances of holding on to their seats.