Weekly Writ 10/16: Trudeau faces his biggest challenge
But a leadership switch is not always the solution.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
Over the weekend, multiple news outlets reported on an effort by some members of the Liberal caucus to oust Justin Trudeau as leader of the party.
The specific details are a little fuzzy — there may or may not be a physical letter with the signatures of a few dozen MPs on it — but the implications are clear. Trudeau is facing the most organized and serious threat to his leadership since taking over the party in 2013.
Whether it is organized or serious enough to actually force Trudeau’s hands is another question entirely. For now, there is very little about this that has been made public. With the notable exception of PEI MP Sean Casey calling for Trudeau’s resignation yesterday, we haven’t seen a group of Liberal MPs standing behind a microphone calling for Trudeau to step down. But if upwards of a fifth of the Liberal caucus is indeed organizing to make such a call, or at least supportive of it, Trudeau will have some difficulty holding on as leader.
These MPs are rightfully worried about their own futures and that of the party. The Liberals are stuck some 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives and the party would likely drop about 100 seats if an election were held today. Trudeau’s own unpopularity and the downward pressures facing the party’s polling trends could send the Liberals sinking even further. Those one-off polls that had the NDP polling second nationally ahead of the Liberals (even if marginally) could start becoming more common, sending the Liberals spiralling even further in public opinion.
A change at the top is the obvious solution, or at least an attempt at a solution.
When a long-standing government’s support begins to tank, a leadership change is often the last (desperate) card that can be played. The baggage of governing builds up and people’s opinions about the leader solidify and become immovable. A new leader provides an opportunity for a fresh start.
But it doesn’t always work — it might not even work most of the time.
The precedents aren’t particularly good and the last two examples we’ve seen at the federal level ended disastrously.
When Brian Mulroney announced his resignation in early 1993, his Progressive Conservatives were plumbing the depths of popularity. Throughout 1992, the PCs polled between 12% and 22% — a range that even the Trudeau Liberals have not sunk to. The switch to Kim Campbell helped, at first, as the PCs surged back into the mid-30s in national support and moved back into a close race with the Liberals.
Of course, the campaign went poorly for the PCs and they ended up with two seats and 16% of the vote. The change might have provided a window for a comeback, but in the end voters reverted to where they were before the leadership swap.
The same happened when John Turner took over from Pierre Trudeau in 1984. In 1983, the Liberals had fallen to somewhere between 30% and 35% support and, more significantly, some 15 to 20 points behind the PCs. Trudeau resigned, Turner came in and the Liberals promptly soared to nearly 50% support. By the end of the 1984 campaign, however, the Liberals had won 28% of the vote. Once again, voters had reverted to where they had been before the switch.
There are some other modern examples from big provinces we can point to. Ernie Eves couldn’t save the Ontario PC government in 2003. Ujjal Dosanjh couldn’t pull the B.C. NDP out of its nose dive in 2001.
On the other hand, Kathleen Wynne brought the Ontario Liberals back from the brink of defeat after she took over from Dalton McGuinty, and won herself another full term as premier in 2014. Christy Clark did the same thing in British Columbia when Gordon Campbell was leading the B.C. Liberals toward defeat.
One thing that those two examples had that wasn’t always the case in the other examples was time. Clark had been premier for more than two years by the time of her upset victory in the 2013 campaign, while Wynne had been in office for well over a year before the 2014 vote. They could put their own stamp on their governments.
The federal Liberals don’t have the luxury of time. That is not to say that they don’t have the runway to organize a leadership race — Doug Ford went from PC leadership contestant to Ontario premier in a little more than three months — but whoever might replace Trudeau will have little time to create the reality (or the illusion) of a fresh start.
But time is also running out for Trudeau to do something to turns things around. And as that window shrinks from day to day, the odds that such a dramatic shift in fortunes could occur become increasingly small. This move to force Trudeau’s resignation could wind up being nothing more than the last desperate card played by those holding a weak hand, or it could be the catalyst for whatever comes next. Whether that’s a Wynne-style comeback or a Campbell-style catastrophe is anyone’s guess.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on the Liberals’ new campaign manager, a leadership race coming to an end in Quebec, and caucus moves in Alberta and PEI.
Polls show the Conservatives holding robust leads across Ontario, and there are new provincial numbers out of Ontario and Quebec.
The U.S. election projection comes down to Pennsylvania.
A bigger majority for Doug Ford if the election were held today.
Bernard Lord puts the PCs back on the path to power in the #EveryElectionProject.
Some milestones for Wab Kinew and François Legault.