The Weekly Writ for Oct. 12
Danielle Smith becomes Alberta premier, how Trudeau and Poilievre compare and a last victory for Richard Hatfield.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
With the Quebec election now in the past, we start to turn our attention to the province that is next scheduled to hold an election: Alberta.
Now, there’s nothing stopping one of the other provinces from deciding to go early. There isn’t a single minority government in any provincial legislature at the moment, but newly-installed premiers in Alberta and (soon) British Columbia could decide they want a mandate of their own sooner rather than later. Even a majority government is no guarantee of an election being held as scheduled — as recently as 2019, then-premier Brian Pallister called an election in Manitoba a year ahead of schedule (for no particularly compelling reason).
Plus, there is that minority government in Ottawa that could theoretically fall at any moment. But I imagine the Conservatives’ present lead in the polls will act as a damper on that, both for the governing Liberals and a New Democratic Party that has little to gain from a snap election call.
So, that leaves Alberta — for now. Accordingly, in today’s Weekly Writ I dissect Danielle Smith’s victory in last Thursday’s UCP leadership vote and take a look at her chances (they’re good) in the upcoming byelection in Brooks-Medicine Hat that will get her a seat in the legislature.
There’s also news about who the next leader of the P.E.I. Liberals will be and new polling data for the mayoral race in Ottawa and the personality race between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre.
Finally, we mark a last milestone for B.C. Premier John Horgan and the #EveryElectionProject takes us back to the New Brunswick election of 1982.
Let’s get to it.