The Weekly Writ for Oct. 11: The NDP goes to Hamilton

What the NDP has to gain (and lose) in Hamilton, plus how Albertans view the CPP and a riding to watch in New Brunswick.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning!

The New Democrats are holding their party convention this weekend in Hamilton, a choice of venue that says a few things about what the NDP sees as one of their opportunities (and challenges) in the next federal election.

These choices are always deliberate and often revealing.

The Liberals decided to hold their pre-sitting cabinet meeting in Prince Edward Island, a defensive move if there ever was one. The Liberals hold all four seats on the island, but more broadly the party is facing serious trouble in Atlantic Canada as the Conservatives move ahead in most polls. Deciding to spend a little time in the region was no accident.

The Conservatives went to Quebec City for their party convention, a move that hinted at bigger ambitions for Pierre Poilievre in the province. The Conservatives already hold most of the seats in the Quebec City region, though a couple of targets exist for them east of the city in the Beauport area.

But holding the event in the provincial capital ensured heightened media coverage (and, it being Quebec City, a good Conservative turnout) that we’ve already seen might have paid off. The Conservatives are up in the polls in Quebec compared to where they were in the early summer.

I’ll delve more deeply into the NDP’s prospects in Hamilton below the fold, but the NDP’s decision to hold their convention in the city has both defensive and offensive aspects — defensive in the sense that the NDP is trying to ward off the Conservative campaign to woo working class voters, and offensive in the sense that the NDP has the potential to make seat gains in Hamilton.

Tomorrow, the first members-only podcast episode of The Numbers will be published. If you don’t want to miss the episode, you can become a member of our Patreon here. A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be in your feed this coming Friday.

Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:

• News on why the NDP is targeting Hamilton and who is leading the 2023 Prediction Contest (it ain’t me).

• Polls show that the APP might be a loser for the UCP, that the B.C. NDP is cruising in British Columbia and that the federal Liberals are holding their support in Quebec.

• Supermajority for the B.C. NDP if the election were held today.

• The New Brunswick Liberal leader’s choice of seat in this week’s riding profile.

• The 1967 Saskatchewan campaign in the #EveryElectionProject.

• A milestone for Danielle Smith.