The Weekly Writ for Nov. 23
May returns as Green leader; Canadians back the PM on the Emergencies Act; and a Manitoba byelection previews next year's general.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
With the leaders of all five parties with seats in the House of Commons now in place, Pierre Poilievre finds himself as the only rookie who will be on the ballot when the next election is held. Assuming the cast of characters stays the same, Justin Trudeau will be leading the Liberals into his fourth campaign. Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet will be embarking on their third, while Elizabeth May will be (co-)leading the Greens for the fifth time.
Oddly enough, despite Poilievre’s inexperience as party leader he will actually be the most experienced politician. He was first elected as the MP for Carleton in 2004. Trudeau and Blanchet won their first elected offices in 2008 (Trudeau as the MP for Papineau, Blanchet as the MNA for Drummond) while May and Singh first won an election in 2011.
The last time there was only one rookie leader among the parties with representation was in 2011, when Michael Ignatieff led the Liberals to their disastrous result against seasoned party leaders Stephen Harper, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe. Stéphane Dion also had a rough time as the only rookie in 2008, as did Stockwell Day in 2000.
You have to go back to the 1957 election to find one where the sole rookie leader actually won. That was John Diefenbaker who, in style and background, has a lot of similarities to Poilievre.
So, will Poilievre be the next Dief or the next Dion?
Now, let’s get to the Weekly Writ.
First, I break down the results of the Green Party leadership race and the checkered history of a party leader returning from a resignation. Also, there’s a provincial byelection coming in Manitoba and a party name change on its way in British Columbia.
The polls this week take a look at Canadians’ views on the invocation of the Emergencies Act back in February, as well as where the party leaders stand on who voters prefer as their next prime minister.
Finally, I profile the site of Manitoba’s upcoming byelection, tell the story of a Northwest Territories election and mark a milestone for Saskatchewan’s premier.
Let’s get to it.