The Weekly Writ for Jul. 26: What impact the shuffle will have on the next election
Cabinet ministers announce they won't run again, what to make of the Calgary Heritage byelection and new Saskatchewan numbers.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
Speculating on who will be in and who will be out of cabinet after today’s expected shuffle is a dangerous game — even reporters with the best of sources could be missing a few names or might be wrong about a portfolio or two.
But there was some news yesterday that we can discuss with more certainty this morning: the list of cabinet ministers who will not run for re-election.
As of writing on Tuesday afternoon, the most up-to-date tally of cabinet ministers stepping aside was four:
Helena Jaczek (Markham–Stouffville, public services)
Omar Alghabra (Mississauga Centre, transport)
Carolyn Bennett (Toronto–St. Paul’s, mental health)
Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra, fisheries)
There were also reports that David Lametti (LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, justice), Mona Fortier (Ottawa–Vanier, treasury board) and Marco Mendicino (Eglinton–Lawrence, public safety) would be dumped, but it wasn’t clear if they would be running again in the next election or not. So, we’ll leave those out of this analysis for now.
In any case, it’s clear that there will be lots of new spots for promotions to cabinet. But there will also be new spots opening up for Liberal candidates in the next election.
Focusing on the four ridings where we know there will have to be new candidate nominations, these are an interesting mix of ridings. They were all won by wide margins in 2021, with Markham–Stouffville and Vancouver Quadra being the closest contests with victory margins of 15 points. But considering their history (they stuck with the Liberals in 2011) and profile, Vancouver Quadra and Toronto–St. Paul’s are Liberal strongholds, suitable for parachuting-in a candidate that fits with the overall brand and narrative of the government — someone like a Mark Carney, who might not have enough of a local connection anywhere to single-handedly win a riding, but could help at the national level.
Mississauga Centre and Markham–Stouffville, on the other hand, are in areas where the Conservatives won in 2011 and that will be targeted by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the next election. They are especially swingy when Canadians decide to change governments. That makes them areas where the Liberals need to recruit star candidates that help them win at the local level. Charles Sousa is an example of that kind of candidate. He helped the Liberals win the Mississauga–Lakeshore byelection in 2022 because of Sousa’s local profile as the MPP and former Ontario minister of finance. But Sousa is not the kind of name that gains the Liberals many votes, if any, outside of Mississauga.
The direct electoral impact of these kinds of shuffles is probably marginal. In the research I’ve done on this in the past, the electoral effect of having (or not having) a cabinet minister in a riding was small. It was initially a factor I included in my seat projection model, but I eventually dumped it when it wasn’t proving to be a good predictor.
Still, common sense would dictate that, all else being equal, having a cabinet minister in a riding is better than not having one (as long as that minister stays out of trouble). Similarly, losing a minister should be worse than losing a generic incumbent. On the whole, though, the national campaign matters far more than what name is on the ballot in the vast majority of cases.
Plus, the value of a cabinet minister can vary from region-to-region — it means more in regions that have a limited number of ministers, like in Atlantic Canada, than in places where there are lots of ministers, like the Greater Toronto Area.
The indirect impact, of course, can be enormous. The consequences of Justin Trudeau shuffling Jody Wilson-Raybould in early 2019 went well beyond her Vancouver Granville riding. Whether or not this shuffle will have that kind of impact won’t reveal itself today.
Who gets promoted and who gets demoted will be the big story today instead. But in addition to the effect the shuffle will have on the Liberal government’s policy, communications and performance, I’ll also be watching what happens with the nominations in these ridings that we now know won’t have an incumbent on the ballot when we next go to the polls.
Speaking of going to the polls, you can join me and Philippe J. Fournier tomorrow night on YouTube for our livestream of the Ontario provincial byelections in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood. Both the Liberals and PCs are aiming to make gains at each other’s expense with the help of some star candidates, while the NDP looks to hold its vote. Join us HERE on Thursday night starting at 9 PM ET!
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of who won and lost in Calgary’s byelection, a big test coming for the CAQ and a new leader in PEI.
Polls show the Sask. Party still leading, plus views on Canada’s best prime ministers.
Which parties would form governments across the country if the election were held today.
A test of the Sask. Party’s cohesion in this week’s riding profile.
PCs win a health care election in Nova Scotia in the #EveryElectionProject.