The Weekly Writ for Jan. 18
Conservatives lead; Alberta MLAs leave; Ontario votes in secret for the first time.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
As the return of parliament approaches, the federal parties are scheduling their planning meetings for the next sitting.
The New Democrats will gather in Ottawa, which happens to be both convenient and cheap. There are no electoral machinations with that choice, it’s just budget-friendly for a party without a big budget.
The Liberals, on the other hand, will be heading out to Hamilton for their cabinet retreat. There just might be a little politics in mind with that choice of destination.
Hamilton was much-coveted during the 2022 Ontario election, receiving visits (multiple ones) by party leaders. The PCs were able to flip an NDP seat and were close to flipping another.
But while the Ontario NDP still holds sway in the region provincially, it’s the Liberals who hold most of Hamilton’s seats federally. The Liberals need to play defense here. They won Hamilton Mountain by less than two percentage points over the Conservatives and their victory margins were within 10 points in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek and in the Hamilton-adjacent riding of Burlington.
We shouldn’t make too much of these choices — I doubt that Hamilton’s voters in the next federal election in 2024 or 2025 will be much swayed by a cabinet visit in early 2023. But, if it means Justin Trudeau has an excuse to talk-up Hamilton for a few days, why not?
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
Light on news this week, so we have an update on the list of retirements ahead of the Alberta provincial election and a last reminder to get your 2023 predictions in.
A couple polls this week on the state of play federally and in New Brunswick.
A duo of challengers have improved their position if the election were held today.
We’re back to Calgary for this week’s riding profile.
Ontario gets the secret ballot for the first time in the #EveryElectionProject.
A milestone for the premier of P.E.I.
Let’s get to it!