It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and insults flew back and forth across the U.S.-Canada border, notably between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. But how are Canadians reacting — and going to react — to Mark Carney’s handling of the issue, as well as these renewed attacks on the country from the unpopular U.S. president?
The Numbers is back this week (and for the long haul!) to take a look at what the polls say about how Canadians are digesting the news, including in Ontario where Ford has appeared to have rebounded. Plus, with three federal byelections scheduled on Monday in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano, we play our usual game of over/under. Can the Liberals (or Bloc) pick up Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, or will the Conservatives avoid losing their first seat in a byelection in nearly a decade?
Then, with Quebec’s election call expected on Thursday (hence our one-day-early episode), we break down the state of the race with just hours to go before its official launch.
Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!
The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.
Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:
I read and hear many commentators wondering out loud: "Why did Carney even bother to enter negotiations with Trump? Is he really that naive?" I drew a straight line back to Carney's Davos speech: How could the leader who showed such toughness of mind, such deep insight into Trump and the kind of change he represents expect good-faith negotiations to succeed?
The answer I landed on is that he didn't. Knowing full well how it would turn out, Carney seized the opportunity to expose Trump once and for all by letting it all play out and then walking away as any self-respecting leader should when Trump showed his true nature, as Carney knew he would.
What did Carney accomplish by drawing Trump out and then leaving him hanging? He has united Canadians in a way they haven't been since wartime. He has greatly furthered his goal of breaking down provincial barriers -- Saskatchewan's Scott Moe just announced a boycott of US alcohol he had been holding out on! He has robbed Quebec and Alberta separatists of their momentum towards divisive referendums. He has cemented the impression worldwide of Trump, and the USA under him, as totally untrustworthy and as futile to negotiate with in good faith. He has greatly enhanced Canada's, and his own, prestige abroad. He has also devastated his political opposition and greatly enhanced the likelihood of more Liberal seats in upcoming by-elections.
This will go down as a turning point in how Trump's perceived, both at home and abroad. Everyone's focused on the pain for Canada, but the whole world was watching these negotiations closely, and I think the overall impression is that it was a major failure and loss of face by Trump that he won't recover from.