The Numbers: Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?
The NDP chooses its new leader on Sunday. Is there much doubt who it will be?
The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?
This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.
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The media is full of commentary on the NDP Leadership race, after their worst Election ever, and how can they recover. But I wonder if they are not the victims of circumstances beyond their control. Would Jack Layton have done much better in the last election? squeezed by a rapidly rising Liberal party, and a still somewhat popular, with the right wing, Pierre Poilievre? I don't think enough Canadians are inherently inclined to vote for the NDP, so they rise and fall on external forces