The Numbers: Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?
Polls suggest an independence referendum would almost certainly lose. So why might Smith still want to hold one?
This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.
This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government. We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support. Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a byelection-themed Quiz.
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Holding a referendum would certainly send a message to the US that Canada can ultimately be picked apart one province at a time. Imagine if the US constitution required Congress to negotiate with any state which voted with a clear majority to leave the republic.