There’s only a little more than two weeks to go in the Ontario election campaign and tonight’s leaders debate might be the last best chance for Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath to keep their hopes of defeating Doug Ford alive.

As it stands, the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are on track for another majority government. They lead the Ontario Liberals by about nine percentage points and their double-digit advantage in the Greater Toronto Area is decisive. Combine those seats with the rock-solid PC base in rural southwestern and eastern Ontario and Ford is easily on track for at least the 63 seats needed for another majority government.

The polls haven’t shifted much so far. If the debate doesn’t shake things up, they might not shift at all.

So what kind of movement in the polls do we need to see to dramatically change the face of this election campaign?