Saskatchewan, a toss-up? Believe it
The map might save the Sask. Party, but the NDP has a real shot
Saskatchewan has been a pretty predictable place over the last few elections. The governing Saskatchewan Party has won the last three campaigns by an average of 31 percentage points over the NDP, generally getting two votes for every one cast for the New Democrats. Their seat majorities have been huge.
The province has a stark urban-rural divide, but the two biggest cities of Regina and Saskatoon combine for only 26 of 61 seats in Saskatchewan. A near-sweep of the rural regions and smaller cities has been enough to ensure a Sask. Party majority, but the party of Brad Wall and Scott Moe has padded its majorities by adding suburban swing seats to that solid foundation.
Polls had been hinting that the Sask. Party’s dominance of the province’s political scene was diminishing, but there had been no plausible path for the opposition New Democrats to form a government. Even a month ago, the odds of another Sask. Party majority victory approached 100%.
Now? The Sask. Party might have only a little better than a 50-50 shot.
It still probably is the favourite, as the electoral map is exceedingly tough for the NDP. Carla Beck’s path to becoming premier is extremely narrow, and one slip-up will send her back to the opposition benches. But the path exists and the party appears to have the momentum. Multiple polls now put the NDP ahead of the Sask. Party across the province, something that hasn’t happened since before the NDP was ousted from office in 2007.
The Sask. Party might yet still survive thanks to its solid rural base. But the tremendous gains the NDP appear poised to make signal that the clock might be ticking on the Saskatchewan Party’s dynasty. Does that clock have four more years or just a few more hours left on it? We’ll find out tonight.
There will be no livestream of the results tonight from me and Philippe, as I am part of CBC Saskatchewan’s coverage of the election. You should be able to tune-in starting at 21:30 ET / 19:30 CT on your local CBC station (in Saskatchewan) for the pre-show and at 22:00 ET / 20:00 CT when the polls close on CBC News Network or YouTube (for everyone else)!
Let’s get into what to watch tonight and how each party could win (or lose) this shockingly close election.
