The next election in Saskatchewan is setting up to be the most competitive contest in more than 20 years. Does that mean that the governing Saskatchewan Party, in power for the last 17 of those years, is in serious danger of seeing its dynasty come to an end?
No.
Going only by the provincewide polls, the Saskatchewan election might look like a toss-up. But the numbers beneath those toplines are far more favourable for the conservative Sask. Party than they are for the NDP. If that isn’t enough, the electoral map of the province, along with the regional distribution of each party’s support, comes down as Premier Scott Moe’s trump card.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for Saskatchewan, E-49
The NDP has closed the gap on the Sask. Party and looks set to have its best performance since it last won an election in 2003. But the Sask. Party has a better electoral map, more promising support among older voters and more resources at hand. The NDP will need to grow its support, likely past 50%, and beat its polls to have a good shot at winning. While it can’t be ruled out as a possibility if the campaign goes badly for Scott Moe, he has all the cards he needs to play to win again.
While a defeat for the Sask. Party would be a tremendous upset, there are still good reasons for many of the government’s cabinet ministers and MLAs to be concerned about their personal futures. Let’s get into why this election campaign could be one of the most interesting ones in the province since the 2000s.
