The next election in Nova Scotia is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The province was the last to not have a fixed election date law on the books, and is the only one to set that date for the middle of the summer.
Picking the summer as the time to hold elections was an odd choice by Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government — and one, perhaps, that they are regretting. Speculation is rife that Houston will send Nova Scotians to the polls far earlier than next July.
If he does, his party will enter that campaign as the heavy favourites to win.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for Nova Scotia, E-351
The Nova Scotia PCs have a significant lead in the polls and a regional distribution of support that gives them multiple paths to another majority government. Their fundraising is good, Tim Houston is more popular than his leadership rivals and the historical precedent points to a second term for the incumbent premier. The biggest wildcard might be whether or not Houston decides to gamble on an early election call, with all the risks and rewards that would come with it.
Nova Scotians could be going to the polls much sooner than 351 days from now. Let’s take a look at why the PCs are the favourites to win whenever the vote takes place.
