Nova Scotia PCs look set for big win

But who will form the official opposition?

After a trio of provincial elections that were tough to call in October, the outcome of today’s vote in Nova Scotia looks about as certain as elections get these days.

British Columbia was literally too close to call. New Brunswick was trending Liberal but the data was thin. Saskatchewan was supposed to be neck-and-neck but turned out to be more lopsided than expected.

Even so, it wasn’t nearly as lopsided as things are likely to be in Nova Scotia.

Tim Houston’s PCs have been leading in the polls since they came to power in August 2021 and the trends have been nothing but positive for them over the last few weeks of this (early) election campaign. The polls suggest that the PCs are on track to take roughly half of the votes and secure a big majority government — perhaps one of the biggest in recent memory. All that’s left to decide is who will form the tiny official opposition that will have to face-off against the Tory colossus on the other side of the aisle.

But will Houston pull off the landslide victory the polls are forecasting, bucking the anti-incumbent trend that cost Scott Moe’s party 14 seats, nearly cost David Eby his government and sent Blaine Higgs packing? Could the PCs win the largest governing caucus in Nova Scotia’s history in raw numbers (42 MLAs is the record, set by John Buchanan’s PCs in 1984) or win the largest share of seats by any party since the last two victories of Robert Stanfield in the 1960s?

Will the NDP return to the official opposition role it hasn’t held since before it came to power in 2009? And will the Liberals salvage enough seats to live to fight another day?

Clearly, there are still some questions that need to be answered tonight even if we have a very good idea of who will win.

So, join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of Nova Scotia’s election! It’ll kick-off when the polls close at 7 PM ET / 8 PM AT. You can watch on YouTube:

Now, let’s get into how the election looks likely to play out — and what the answers to those remaining questions are likely to be.