Next year’s election in New Brunswick is looking like a real nail-biter, with both the Progressive Conservatives under Blaine Higgs and the Liberals under Susan Holt holding some decent cards in their deck.
But who will have the better hand on election day?
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for New Brunswick, E-315
The New Brunswick Liberals and their leader Susan Holt have marginally better polling than do the Progressive Conservatives and Premier Blaine Higgs. Both parties are raising decent amounts of money and have regional bases from which to build upon. Higgs is looking for a third-term when incumbents have become unpopular and re-election has been tough to pull off in New Brunswick, but the electoral geography is tilted in the PCs’ favour. Nothing suggests either party has a distinct advantage. Whoever wins, it could be a close result.
As we look to the end of 2023, let’s cast our eyes to what could be the most interesting election in 2024.
