New Brunswick’s scheduled election in October looks too close to call. But that view is a blurred, fuzzy one — because we don’t have much to go on.
Polling in this province has been rare and has largely come from one single polling firm. We were treated with another poll from a different pollster this summer, but those results only muddied the waters. Either the Liberals have a decent lead over the PCs, or the race is neck-and-neck.
It’s not possible to say which of those two perspectives is closer to the truth. The safer call at the moment is that New Brunswick’s election remains a toss-up. But, going a little further, it might be a Liberal-leaning toss-up — if only just.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for New Brunswick, E-48
At the very least, polls suggest that the Liberals and PCs are neck-and-neck. Usually, that is good news for the PCs because of a favourable electoral map. But the polls also suggest that the Liberals have reduced their vote inefficiency, which levels the playing field if the two parties are indeed running even in support. Blaine Higgs is not particularly popular, but it isn’t clear if Susan Holt is much more popular than him. The data is too spotty to make a clear call, which means New Brunswick remains a toss-up. But the PCs need more signs that they have an advantage somewhere to have a greater than 50/50 hope of re-election.
Let’s break down what we do know, as well as what we don’t, in what should be a hotly contested election campaign.
