NDP poised for victory in Manitoba today

Only a polling miss can save the PCs

Wab Kinew and his New Democrats are on track to win today’s election in Manitoba. The polls point to a big lead for the NDP in Winnipeg and strong numbers for the party outside of the provincial capital, a recipe for electoral success.

There’s little in the numbers that suggest that Heather Stefanson and the Progressive Conservatives can hold on to their government. But they aren’t so far out of contention that they can’t still hold on to a glimmer of hope — if only a glimmer.

The polling in this Manitoba campaign has been relatively light, and that is one of the reasons an NDP victory can’t be said to be a sure thing. Several polls were conducted over the first few weeks and published at around the midpoint of the campaign, and most of them pointed to an NDP advantage. After that midpoint, it was crickets from the pollsters — until yesterday when some new numbers were finally published, those polls coming from Research Co. and Mainstreet Research. The first put the NDP ahead by nine points, the second put the gap at 6.6 points.

Neither of these two surveys suggested that opinions recorded earlier in the campaign had shifted all that much, adding further weight to what those earlier surveys were saying. But it is a lot to hang the expectations of a change of government on just two polls. If the PCs can manage to beat those polls, this likely NDP victory could turn into a toss-up contest. If, instead, the NDP matches its polling numbers or even out-performs them, then this could prove to be a very rough night for the governing PCs. That’s the range of plausible outcomes this evening — from a close, nail-biter finish to an NDP romp. That is not a favourable range for the PCs.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on YouTube at 8 PM CT / 9 PM ET for our live analysis of the Manitoba election results as they come in:

So, let’s take a look at the paths for government that the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives have. They both have a path. But the NDP’s is far wider and can take many different routes, while the PCs need more than a little luck to fall their way.