With a little less than 290 days to go before Saskatchewan’s election, the governing Saskatchewan Party looks well-positioned to extend its winning streak to five when the province goes to the polls on October 28.
But it could still prove to be the narrowest victory the Sask. Party has had to win since first coming to power in 2007, as the New Democrats look set to make some significant gains in the biggest cities — just not enough to put a re-elected Sask. Party government in any real doubt.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for Saskatchewan, E-287
Canada’s current longest-serving government looks likely to extend its time in office for another four years, as the Sask. Party continues to lead in the polls and fundraising, as has consistently been the case with few interruptions since 2007. The Sask. Party also has a solid base of rural seats to count on, leaving the NDP with few realistic paths to victory. While parties to the right of Premier Scott Moe might cause him a few headaches, the chances that only two parties will be represented in the legislature after the voting is over remain high.
Saskatchewan is increasingly Canada’s most conservative province, at least judging by polling and election results. But that doesn’t mean the Saskatchewan Party can expect the same clean sweep that has become a regular occurrence for the federal Conservatives in the province. The NDP will put up a fight — maybe its strongest fight since it was relegated to the opposition benches nearly 17 years ago.
