As a centre-left voter I wanted Mainstreet to be wrong, but great polling by them and a needed reminder that wishing doesn't make it so. Also good to see that so much of the polling was able to anticipate voting patterns reasonably correctly — that's one dark art that I'm completely in awe of.
Eric, would you ever consider making the Poll Tracker min/max scenarios account explicitly for the recent patterns in small polling misses? Has CPC outperformed the polls consistently enough that the model should reflect that? I realize it's a tough call, because pollsters are presumably making changes too, and you would not want to overcorrect.
Eric---it seems to me the Election came a week too late for the Liberals, and a week too soon for the Tories?
Ha, that sounds about right!
As a centre-left voter I wanted Mainstreet to be wrong, but great polling by them and a needed reminder that wishing doesn't make it so. Also good to see that so much of the polling was able to anticipate voting patterns reasonably correctly — that's one dark art that I'm completely in awe of.
Are these error numbers added to the poll tracker to determine the dependability of various pollsters?
Yes, the pollsters are re-assessed after every election.
Eric, would you ever consider making the Poll Tracker min/max scenarios account explicitly for the recent patterns in small polling misses? Has CPC outperformed the polls consistently enough that the model should reflect that? I realize it's a tough call, because pollsters are presumably making changes too, and you would not want to overcorrect.
I'm thinking of re-vamping the model, and this would be one of the things it would include.