Conservatives would win today. Will they win in 2025?
Grenier Political Report for the next federal election, E-728
With two years to go before the next scheduled federal election, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party hold all the advantages. They are up in the polls and leading in the regions they need to win in order to form a majority government. They are raising much more money than the Liberals, who will be approaching a decade in office in October 2025.
But two years is a long time.
If the Conservatives can keep on their current path, they will be the heavy favourites to win the next election. But there is a lot that can change between now and 2025. Some of that is within the Conservatives’ control. But a lot of it isn’t.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for Canada, E-728
The Conservatives have surged in the polls and have built sizable leads in important battleground provinces like Ontario and British Columbia. They are out-fundraising the Liberals by more than two-to-one and Pierre Poilievre’s personal ratings have improved while Justin Trudeau’s have worsened. The Conservatives are in a strong position to win the next election, but there are significant unknowns that could change the landscape dramatically between now and the next scheduled election in 2025.
In this report, I’ll take a deep dive into the national and regional polling numbers, as well as the factors that could play a role in deciding the outcome of the next election. Before we do that, however, let’s start with how we got here.