B.C. NDP favoured, but Conservatives could pull off upset
NDP ends campaign with a narrow lead in most polls and the regional and demographic breaks it needs to win.
You’d think after over a decade the ghosts of the 2013 B.C. election campaign would be long put to rest. The polls performed well in the 2017 and 2020 provincial elections and the latter ended with confident predictions of an NDP victory — predictions that came true.
There’s no way to be very confident today. But the B.C. New Democrats are more likely to secure re-election than the B.C. Conservatives are to oust them from power. Most signs point to the NDP holding the advantage, including their lead in (most) polls, their edge in the electorally-decisive Lower Mainland and their strong support among the oldest voters who tend to cast their ballots in big numbers.
But the NDP does not hold an insurmountable lead even in the polls where it is ahead — and it isn’t ahead in all of them. The regional distribution of support seems to favour the NDP, but there is some inconsistency to it. The B.C. Conservatives have strong support among those between the ages of 35 and 54, who also tend to turnout in decent numbers. And the polls — if not always in British Columbia, then at least in the country as a whole — tend to under-estimate right-of-centre parties, at least when they do make errors.
In short, there’s good reason to not rule out John Rustad and his Conservatives in B.C.’s election. But the favourite still has to David Eby and his New Democrats — if only just.
Join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of the B.C. election results, tonight starting at 11 PM ET / 8 PM PT!
Let’s delve into the numbers and break down why the NDP is favoured to win — and why the Conservatives still have a shot.