Updated October 28, 2026 - The Liberals are in a dominant position in the projection and are leading in 235 seats across the country and have a 15.7-point advantage over the Conservatives, who are at risk of losing as many as half of their caucus. The New Democrats would likely achieve recognized party status, largely at the expense of the Conservatives, while the Bloc could lose a few seats to the Liberals if the election were held today.

Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.

Full regional breakdowns and tracking charts are available for subscribers below, as are complete riding-level projections. A full methodological explanation of how the vote and seat projection model works can be found here.

The Vote Projection is based primarily on a weighted average of all publicly-available national and regional polls. The weighted average is then used to project the outcome in all 343 ridings across the country, taking into account local candidates. Those individual riding-level projections are then weighted by the number of eligible voters in each riding and past turnout to determine the national vote projection for each party.

The Seat Projection shows the number of seats in which each party is projected to be ahead. Parties are assigned a range of likely vote share in each riding based on past polling and modelling errors and 10,000 simulations are run to assign to each party a number of ridings in which they are in contention. The High and Low ranges take into account 95% of all likely outcomes, while the Median Projection shows the median number of seats each party wins in these simulations, which takes into account the tendency for parties to under- or out-perform their polls.

Wondering how to interpret the Seat Projection and the Median Projection? While the Seat Projection is The Writ’s “official call”, the Median Projection is an important guide to understanding the projections, in conjunction with the high and low ranges. Seat projections are rarely right on target, so the Median Projection should set expectations. In other words, if the Seat Projection for a party is 25 seats but the Median Projection is 21, your expectation should be that the party will win around 25 seats, with a greater likelihood that the party under-performs that target rather than beats it.

The percentage of simulations in which each party wins a majority or a plurality of seats is shown below.

A full breakdown of the methodology behind the vote and seat projection model can be found here:

The table below includes all recent federal voting intentions polls that are publicly available. You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release. Rows containing polls conducted in a single region are highlighted in different colours.

Vote and seat projections broken down by region, tracking charts going back to the 2025 election and riding projections for all 343 seats in Canada are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇

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Updated October 24 (5:45 AM PT) - With all the polls now in, the Conservatives are the heavy favourites to win today’s British Columbia election. The party leads by just over five percentage points in the vote projection and is favoured in 59 seats across the province, leaving just 32 for the New Democrats and two for the Greens. The model estimates an 81% chance of victory for Lorne Doerkson and the Conservatives, with the NDP’s chances largely resting on the potential for an under-estimation in the polls. That’s not impossible — the margin is just five points, after all — but the consistency in the Conservatives’ lead, as well as their strong numbers in Metro Vancouver, make it difficult to realistically see a path to re-election for David Eby’s NDP.

Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.

Full regional breakdowns and tracking charts are available for subscribers below, as are complete riding-level projections. A full methodological explanation of how the vote and seat projection model works can be found here.

The Vote Projection is based primarily on a weighted average of all publicly-available provincial and regional polls. The weighted average is then used to project the outcome in all 93 ridings across British Columbia, taking into account local candidates. Those individual riding-level projections are then weighted by the number of eligible voters in each riding and past turnout to determine the provincial vote projection for each party.

The Seat Leading shows the number of seats in which each party is projected to be ahead. Parties are assigned a range of likely vote share in each riding based on past polling and modelling errors and 10,000 simulations are run to assign to each party a number of ridings in which they are in contention. The High and Low ranges take into account 95% of all likely outcomes, while the Median Projection shows the median number of seats each party wins in these simulations, which takes into account the tendency for parties to under- or out-perform their polls, as well as the number of toss-up contests across the province.

Wondering how to interpret the Seats Leading and the Median Projection? While the Seats Leading is The Writ’s “official call”, the Median Projection is an important guide to understanding the projections, in conjunction with the high and low ranges. Seat projections are rarely right on target, so the Median Projection should set expectations. In other words, if a party is leading in 25 seats but the Median Projection is 21.2, your expectation should be that the party will win around 25 seats, with a greater likelihood that the party under-performs that target rather than beats it.

The percentage of simulations in which each party wins a majority or a plurality of seats is shown below.

A full breakdown of the methodology behind the vote and seat projection model can be found here:

The table below includes all recent provincial voting intentions polls that are publicly available. You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.

Vote and seat projections broken down by region, tracking charts, maps and detailed projections for all 93 ridings across B.C., as well as vote projections for smaller regions within the province, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇

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Updated October 18 (8:17 PM MT) - A strong majority of Albertans tell pollsters they will vote to remain in Canada, with 69% choosing to remain against an average of 25% who support beginning the process to hold a binding referendum on Alberta independence. With the removal of undecideds, support for independence is only 27%.

This is largely a debate among United Conservative voters, as there is strong majority support for remaining in Canada in both the urban centres of Calgary and Edmonton, outside of the two cities, among all age groups and among both men and women. Only among UCP voters are opinions split.

Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.

On October 19, Albertans will be voting on 10 referendum questions, including several on immigration and constitutional issues. But there will also be a question related to Alberta independence, though asked in a roundabout way. The wording of the question is:

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

The Writ’s Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker aggregates all of the polls published during this referendum campaign. The chart below shows the current polling average, encompassing all polls, regardless of question wording, that include results on Alberta separation in general or the referendum question in particular. The chart on the left shows the current average with undecideds shown, while the chart on the right is after the removal of undecideds.

The table below includes all publicly available polls on Alberta independence conducted since the beginning of 2026. Note that the question wording is not always consistent between pollsters (Léger, for example, has included an option of Alberta joining the United States in its questionnaire, which has been grouped into the “Independence” column below). When both a generic independence question and the exact wording of the referendum question is included in a poll, the latter result is shown in this table.

You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.

The method used to calculate the polling average is similar to the methodology described here for The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projections. No adjustments are made to the polls, however, to take into account any potential turnout effects.

The polling averages broken down by region, demographics and voting intentions, as well as tracking charts going back to the beginning of this year, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇

Regional, demographic and partisan polling averages

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Updated October 4, 2026 (10:31 PM) - Most, if not all, of the final polls of this campaign have been published and they are unanimous on one thing: the Parti Québécois should win the election. But will it be a majority or minority government?

The PQ is projected to win in 94% of the model’s simulations (the other 6% are scenarios in which the polls completely miss the mark) but only wins 64 or more seats, the threshold for a majority, in 36% of simulations. In 58% of simulations, the PQ wins a minority.

The party is projected to be leading in 65 seats, but that is at the high end of its ceiling. On average, the PQ wins 58 seats. So, the majority/minority is on a knife’s edge, but a minority is the marginally more likely outcome because there aren’t a lot of scenarios in which the PQ clears the 64-seat mark very easily.

The Liberals look set to resume the official opposition role with around 37 seats, while the Conservatives are likely to make a splash and achieve official party status, either because they will win at least 12 seats or because they could hit 20% of the vote (or, quite possibly, both, as the party is projected to win around 17 seats and just over 20% of the vote).

Québec Solidaire is holding on to most of its incumbent seats but is likely to lose a few. When it comes to the Coalition Avenir Québec, it’s a distinct possibility that the party will go from its landslide, 90-seat victory in 2022 to a complete wipeout, an ignominious fate few governing parties have experienced anywhere in Canadian history. But there is enough uncertainty, and enough toss-ups, for the CAQ to have a hope of winning a few seats merely by chance. But it’s hard to identify what seats they could be, if any, because the party is projected to be leading in none.

Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.

Full regional breakdowns and tracking charts are available for subscribers below, as are complete riding-level projections. A full methodological explanation of how the vote and seat projection model works can be found here.

The Vote Projection is based primarily on a weighted average of all publicly-available provincial and regional polls. The weighted average is then used to project the outcome in all 127 ridings across Quebec, taking into account local candidates. Those individual riding-level projections are then weighted by the number of eligible voters in each riding and past turnout to determine the provincial vote projection for each party.

The Seat Leading shows the number of seats in which each party is projected to be ahead. Parties are assigned a range of likely vote share in each riding based on past polling and modelling errors and 10,000 simulations are run to assign to each party a number of ridings in which they are in contention. The High and Low ranges take into account 95% of all likely outcomes, while the Avg. Projection shows the average number of seats each party wins in these simulations, which takes into account the tendency for parties to under- or out-perform their polls, as well as the number of toss-up contests across the province.

Wondering how to interpret the Seats Leading and the Avg. Projection? While the Seat Projection is The Writ’s “official call”, the Avg. Projection is an important guide to understanding the projections, in conjunction with the high and low ranges. Seat projections are rarely right on target, so the Avg. Projection should set expectations. In other words, if a party is leading in 25 seats but the Avg. Projection is 21.2, your expectation should be that the party will win around 25 seats, with a greater likelihood that the party under-performs that target rather than beats it.

The percentage of simulations in which each party wins a majority or a plurality of seats is shown below.

A full breakdown of the methodology behind the vote and seat projection model can be found here:

The table below includes all recent provincial voting intentions polls that are publicly available. You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.

Vote and seat projections broken down by region, tracking charts, maps and detailed projections for all 127 ridings across Quebec, as well as vote projections for smaller regions within the province, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇

Read more

While I’ve been building and running election models for over 15 years and ran the CBC’s Poll Tracker in the 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025 elections (as well as for a handful of provincial elections), this model is newly-designed from the ground up. I wrote about some of my thought processes during the development of the model here:

The Writ’s federal vote and seat projection model was launched in March 2026. Prior data was loaded into the model to calculate projections stretching back to the April 2025 federal election for comparison purposes.

This projection model will always be in a state of evolution as changes will be made when required (and, if significantly changing the model, explained in full). While I’ve taken as many steps as possible to reduce the amount of my own subjective judgment that is applied to the projections, there might arise some situations in which there are few or no historical precedents to use as guidance. In those cases, some ad hoc adjustments to the projection model might be made by me.

Calculating the polling average

National, provincial and regional polls are weighted by three factors.

The first is the date of the poll, based on the mid-point of the poll’s field dates. Outside of a campaign, polls with a mid-point date within the last week are given a full weight, while during a campaign full weights are given to polls with a mid-point date within the last three days. Outside of a campaign, the date weight of a poll is reduced by 7% per day, while during a campaign it is reduced by 25% per day.

The second weight is the sample size, with larger sample sizes given more weight than smaller sample sizes, up to a limit of 1,500.1

The third weight is the track record of a polling firm, with polling firms with a better track record give more weight than polls with a worse track record.

The relative weights of these three factors is 70%, 25% and 5%, respectively, with the sample size and track record weight reduced at the same pace as the date weighting. After each poll is assigned a weight, it is then used to calculate an average in a given region. Polling averages are calculated for each region and sub-region, depending on what data is available.

Riding-level projections

For each region with a polling average, a baseline riding projection is calculated for each riding in that region. The riding projection is a 50/50 combination of a proportional and uniform swing model.

With proportional swing, a party’s result in a riding in the previous election is adjusted proportionally by how a party’s support has shifted in the region as a whole since that election.2

With uniform swing, a party’s result in a riding is adjusted uniformly by how a party’s support has shifted in the region as a whole.3

The average between the proportional and uniform swing is then calculated for each party in each riding, and then those numbers are adjusted to ensure support adds up to 100%.

The projection for each riding in each region with a polling average is then assigned a weight according to the weight of all the polls in the polling average for that region, and a weighted average riding projection is then calculated for every riding.

At this point, adjustments are made to the projection to take into account local factors. This include:

• Byelections: When a seat has changed hands in a byelection, the vote projection in the region or province where and when the byelection was held is used as the new baseline from which to apply the proportional and uniform swing. When a seat hasn’t changed hands, the previous general election result is still used as the baseline. Regardless of whether the riding changed hands or not, the error range for the riding’s projection is widened to increase the level of uncertainty.

• Incumbency: Based on historical precedent at the federal level, the presence of an incumbent marginally boosts support for the Liberals or NDP, largely at the expense of the other party.4 The lack of an incumbent penalizes the party that lost the incumbent by between three to four points, with different parties getting a corresponding boost depending on which party has lost the incumbent. For provincial elections, second choice polling might be used to determine which parties benefit or are penalized due to the presence or otherwise of an incumbent.

• Floor-crossing: The party that has welcomed a floor-crossing legislator receives a boost that comes at the expense of the party that lost the floor-crossing legislator. The size of that boost can be adjusted according to the circumstances but is based on past precedent.

• Independents: The presence, or departure, of significant Independent MPs, provincial legislators or candidates is taken into account.

• Party leaders: A party leader running in a riding for the first time gets a significant boost in the model, based on past precedents. A party whose leader has vacated a riding is penalized to a greater extent than when it is a normal incumbent that has retired.

• Candidates with previous electoral experience: For federal projections, new candidates who have previously sat in a provincial or territorial legislature or who were leaders of a provincial or territorial party are awarded a boost which comes at the expense of other parties, depending on the party of the candidate.

• Withdrawn or no candidate: When a major party withdraws a candidate but that candidate will still be present on the ballot as a candidate for that party, a smaller share of what the candidate would have normally been expected to get is awarded to the party. That reduction is awarded to other parties depending on which party withdrew their candidate. When a major party has no candidate on the ballot, the share that would have been projected for a candidate from that party is distributed to other parties in different amounts depending on which party does not have a candidate. When a party did not run a candidate in the last election, previous results are used to estimate that party’s support.

The size of boosts or penalties assessed is determined by looking at how past actual election results compared to expected results when applying the mixed uniform/proportional swing model to those past elections.

Once these adjustments are complete, a final projection for the riding can be calculated. These are the numbers that you can find on the Riding Projections page.

Vote projection

The national, provincial and regional vote projections are calculated by summing the riding projections. In other words, the weighted polling average and the vote projection are two separate things, and only the vote projection is presented.

The projection for each province is calculated by weighting each riding projection by the average of 1) the riding’s share of the province’s total eligible voting population in the last election and 2) the riding’s share of the province’s total actual voters in the last election. With each riding assigned a turnout weight, they can then be combined to calculate the vote projection for the province as a whole.

This means that the vote projection takes into account not only turnout dynamics but also the adjustments made to each individual riding. A party losing a large number of incumbents in a province, for example, would be projected to take less of the vote than the polling average would suggest.

To calculate the national (and, in the case of Atlantic Canada, regional) vote projection, the provincial vote projections are weighted by the share of each province’s national turnout in the last election. Different provinces have consistently and predictably had higher or lower turnout than the country as a whole.5

Since the national vote projection is dependent on the provincial vote projections, single-province or region polls can influence the federal vote projection.

Sub-regional vote projections presented with the Riding Projections (such as for Toronto or Montreal) are a simple average of the individual riding projections in that region, with a few exceptions made for regions with ridings with significantly smaller populations or lower turnout.6

Seat projection

The Seat Projection or Seats Leading is simply the number of ridings in which a party is projected to be leading.

However, each party in each riding also has a lower and higher range of likely support. These ranges are based on the past performance of this model when applied to elections between 2011 and 2025 (or the last three provincial elections for provincial projections) meaning the ranges take into account both the errors in the model itself and in the polls. For that reason, the ranges aren’t a simple +/- calculation, with the likelihood of the result being higher or lower than the projection being equal. The precise projection for each riding does not take into account the past errors in the polls, but the projection ranges do take into account past polling error.

This means that parties that have historically beaten their polls (such as the federal Conservatives) have a higher high range and a lower low range than parties that have historically under-performed their polls (such as the federal New Democrats). For federal projections, these tendencies to under- or out-perform the polls is calculated for each party in each region. In some regions, for example, parties have largely matched their polls while they haven’t in others. Alberta and Saskatchewan for the Conservatives are good examples of where the polls have been off by greater amounts than in other regions.

These upper and lower ranges are then used to determine which seats are in contention for each party at each confidence level. More seats are in contention at the 95% confidence level, where the ranges are greater, than at the 75% confidence level, where the ranges are smaller.

The classification of a projection as Safe, Likely, Lean, Close, Edge and Toss reflects at which level of confidence does a seat become contested. If a seat is projected as “Safe”, it means that with the widest projected ranges for every party the leading party’s floor is higher than every other party’s ceiling at the 95% confidence level. “Likely” represents the 85% to 95% range, “Lean” the 75% to 85% range, “Close” the 65% to 75% range, “Edge” the 55% to 65% range, and “Toss” is 55% and less.

Since the upper and lower ranges differ for each party, in each region and at each confidence level, the classification of a projection is not uniformly based on the same margins. Two seats contested by the Conservatives and Liberals with the same margin between the two parties might be an “Edge” call in Ontario and a “Lean” call in Alberta because of how the ranges for the two parties differ from region to region. For example, a Liberal lead in Alberta is going to be more uncertain than a Conservative lead of the same size in the province, because the Conservative floor is higher than the Liberals’ floor.

The precise riding projections do not take into account these past polling performances, however, because polling errors are not consistent from one election to the next. Rather than risk adding to potential errors7, I have decided to let the riding projections reflect the seats each party should be able to win based on where the polls are, and let the projection classifications reflect the certainty (or uncertainty) of those projections.

Calculating probabilities and the Median Projection

Using the ranges at each confidence level, the number of seats being contested between two or more parties is calculated. Then, a proportion of these contested seats are randomly assigned to each party to give each party a total of seats won. The result is one election simulation that incorporates the uncertainty in the riding projections. This process is repeated 10,000 times to simulate 10,000 individual election results.

The presented “chances of winning” the election is the equivalent of the share of times one party has the most seats and/or crosses the seat threshold for a majority government in those 10,000 simulations.

The high and low seat projection ranges reflect the 95th percentile of outcomes in those 10,000 simulations, while the Median Projection8 is the median outcome of those simulations. As the simulations rely on the projection ranges for each individual riding, which themselves are calculated by assessing the tendency for parties to out- or under-perform their polls and the model, the ranges and the Median Projection take into account the likelihood that parties will beat or under-perform their polls and the model.

• Any questions regarding the model? Leave them as a comment below or send me an email.

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Five polls published over the last week have had nothing but good news for the Liberals, with four of those polls giving the party a lead of at least 14 points over the Conservatives. Those polls have pushed the Liberals to 46.6% in the vote projection, their highest point yet. With the Conservatives at 33%, unchanged from last week, the gap of 13.3 points is wider than any gap in the model since the last election. Stretching back to the CBC Poll Tracker predecessors of The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection Model, my projections last had a Liberal lead of this size in November 2016 — nearly 10 years ago.

The Liberals are now projected to be leading in 225 seats. They hit a range of 226 to 230 seats back in the spring, but their average projection (which takes into account close races and past polling misses) has never been higher than their current tally of 219.6 seats. Similarly, the Conservatives have been lower than 80 seats before (they dropped to 77 at the end of May), but their average projection of 94.7 seats is a new low for the party.

This is an indication of how the number of closely-contested seats between the Liberals and the Conservatives has decreased. When the Liberals were last at this level in the seat projection, many of the seats they were leading in were considered toss-ups that could’ve gone another way. Now, the Liberals are leading in a similar number of seats but the Conservatives have a shot of coming out ahead in fewer of them. For that reason, the Liberals’ odds of winning a majority have hit a new high at 97%.

The New Democrats got a couple of single-digit polls over the last week and have fallen to 9.8%. They still lead in 15 seats, but their average seat projection is back below the 12-seat threshold for recognized party status. The Bloc is also holding relatively steady at 21 seats, but its average has fallen to 17.3 seats. For both of these parties, they are in more tight races than they were in before as the Liberal ceiling rises.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

It’s clear enough that the renewed focus on Canada-U.S. relations has boosted the Liberals and Mark Carney. But there are a few regions where the shifts in support have been particularly pronounced — and a few others where the Liberals have actually lost some ground.

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It’s been a quieter week on the national polling front, so with only a few new data points to add to the projection model there’s been very little shift in the numbers. The Liberals lead with 45.5% — a minor gain of 0.2 points since last week but their highest projected vote share since the end of May — and are leading in 220 seats, winning 213.6 seats on average.

The Conservatives have slipped another 0.2 points to 33%. They’ve been hovering around that number for the last few weeks and are leading in 83 seats, the same number as last week. But more worryingly for the party is that their average seat wins are only 95.8. That’s the lowest ever in the model (since the 2025 election). Remember that the average projection takes into account the number of toss-ups and the Conservative tendency to beat their polls.

So, even if they win their fair share of toss-ups and outperform their polling levels, the Conservatives would still win only around 96 seats. Twice before the Conservatives have won 99 seats (in 2004 and in 2015), but never since the party was formed out of the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives in 2003 has the party won just 96 seats.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

Moving over to Quebec, a new poll published this morning from Léger shows numbers that are, once again, nearly identical to the latest Pallas Data survey. That being the case, the projection has not shifted much since yesterday’s update.

The Parti Québécois is leading in 59 ridings across Quebec, but their upper ceiling sits at 64 seats — the very threshold for a majority government. The PQ would need to win all of the toss-ups in which they are projected to be leading as well as flip a few seats in which they are trailing in order to form a majority government. That’s not impossible, but it sure would be lucky for the PQ.

That’s why the average seat projection for the PQ is just 49.1 seats. Many of the PQ-CAQ toss-ups are likely to go the CAQ’s way, particularly when poll after poll shows the CAQ’s support being concentrated among the older voters who actually turn out to vote. The CAQ is projected to be leading in just 17 seats but wins an average of 30.6 seats in the projection model. That puts them nearly on par with the Liberals.

The story in Quebec remains one of stability following Christine Fréchette’s and the CAQ’s modest recovery, thanks in large part to Donald Trump. His renewed attacks on Bombardier, which occurred after the Pallas and Léger polls, could further assist Fréchette. But there is a lack of enthusiasm for any of the parties or their leaders in Quebec, so it’s also possible that the numbers won’t shift much.

That’s not the case federally, however. The Liberals appear to be benefitting from another Trump bump and Mark Carney’s personal numbers seem to be on the rise again. I’ll delve into this in further detail in Thursday’s Weekly Writ.

Before getting to last night’s results, let’s get to the latest update of The Writ’s Federal Vote and Seat Projection. The change since last week’s update has been marginal, but the Liberals have now opened up a 12-point lead over the Conservatives and are projected to be leading in 219 seats and win an average of 210, even after taking into account the Conservative tendency to beat their own polls.

The Conservatives are projected to be leading in just 83 seats and win fewer than 100 seats on average, while the New Democrats are still very much in the running to achieve recognized party status as they lead in 16 seats and win an average of 12.2 in the model’s 10,000 simulations. Polling since the termination of trade negotiations with the U.S. suggests that the Liberals and Mark Carney have gotten a small bump, but the Liberals might be reaching their ceiling in public support as it is. What we haven’t quite figured out, however, is where the Conservative floor is located.

That question becomes all the more pressing when we take a look at what happened in the three byelections last night.

The respectable turnout (40% in Beaches—East York, 42% in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and 46% in North Vancouver—Capilano) in these contests suggests that voters were engaged — or about as engaged as one might expect voters to be at the end of August just a week before the Labour Day weekend.

The Liberals’ Daniel Gobeil prevailed in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, taking 51.3% of the vote in the party’s best performance in this part of Quebec since Pierre Trudeau’s near-sweep of the province in 1980. The Liberals were up 20.2 points, an astonishing result in a deeply francophone and nationalist region. The gain was even more dramatic than the party’s 9.7-point bump in Terrebonne earlier this year and the increase was so big that the Liberals actually earned more total votes in this lower-turnout byelection than they did in the 2025 general election.

Caroline Dubé of the Bloc Québécois finished with 32.9%, an increase of only 1.7 points and still down from the party’s showing in this seat in 2019 and 2021. The NDP and Greens were largely unchanged at 2% and 0.7%, respectively.

But it’s the drop in support for the Conservatives that is perhaps the most shocking. Régis Gaudreault captured just 12.5% of the vote, a stunning loss of 21.6 percentage points.

While some of that exodus could be blamed on the departure of former Conservative MP Richard Martel, who was a high-profile junior hockey coach in Chicoutimi before he made the jump to federal politics, this score is well below the normal cruising altitude for the Conservatives even before Martel came along. In 2015, when Stephen Harper’s government went down to defeat, the party still managed nearly 17% of the vote in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. When the Conservatives could only win five seats in Quebec in the 2011 election, 25.3% of voters supported the party here. The Conservatives also easily cleared the 20% threshold in the 2006 and 2008 elections. This result is not just an under-performance of Martel’s results. It’s an under-performance of the Conservative baseline and the worst result for the party here since 2004.

The Liberals’ Tanveer Shahnawaz secured 55.7% of the vote in Beaches—East York, a significant drop of 12.1 points compared with Nate Erskine-Smith’s performance in this Toronto riding in 2025. Much of that vote appears to have gone to Shannon Devine and the New Democrats, who were up 18.9 points to 25.8%.

It seems likely that the resignation of Erskine-Smith, who was one of the more progressive members of the Liberal caucus, liberated some progressive voters in Beaches—East York to return to the NDP. Avi Lewis and the New Democrats appear to have put more effort and resources into Beaches—East York and the jump in support shows that these efforts paid off. This was the best score for the NDP in this riding since 2015, when they were the incumbents.

The Conservatives were down eight points to 15.5%, while the Greens were up 0.4 points to 1.7%.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

Finally, in North Vancouver—Capilano the Liberals’ Braeden Caley won with 58.6% of the vote, a small drop of 1.2 points. The Conservatives’ Stephen Curran took 29.2%, down 4.5 points from his own performance in the last election. The Greens’ Shelley Luce upset the NDP’s Stephen Tweedale for third place with a gain of seven points, taking 8.7% to the NDP’s 3.1%. That was a small drop of 1.1 points for the NDP.

So, what to make of these results?

For the Liberals, the night has to be graded very well. The loss of support in Beaches—East York was big, but Erskine-Smith’s 67.8% in the last election was among the best results for the Liberals anywhere in the country — a high bar to meet. The party also held its vote in North Vancouver—Capilano. The win in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord ensured the night can only be seen as a success, but it is the dramatic nature of the victory that mitigates what would have otherwise been a somewhat disappointing result in Beaches—East York. Of course, a win is a win and a solid 30-point victory is nothing to sneeze at.

The New Democrats should be very pleased with the result in Beaches—East York, which surpassed expectations. But the poor showings in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and, especially, North Vancouver—Capilano point to the result in Beaches—East York being the result of hard work and the resources that were poured into the riding. If the New Democrats were organically growing, they would have done better in North Vancouver—Capilano rather than lose vote share. The party captured between 16% and 20% of the vote in this seat in the 2019 and 2021 elections under Jagmeet Singh, so a 3.1% result anywhere in the B.C. Lower Mainland should put a bit of a sour note on the NDP’s evening. Nevertheless, Lewis demonstrated that his message can resonate when it’s backed up by organization. Plus, coupled with the result in University—Rosedale earlier this year, he’s shown that the NDP isn’t doomed to under-perform in byelections, as had been the case over the previous decade.

The Bloc can’t take much from the result in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. Their vote held up but at a level that’s too low to contend for the seat. In Terrebonne, the party had shown that in a polarized race it could corral the anti-Liberal vote, even if it wasn’t enough to take the seat. In Chicoutimi—Le Fjord all the Bloc did was get its base out.

The Greens, meanwhile, showed some life in North Vancouver—Capilano. In the context of where that party has been in the last few election cycles, that’s a good silver lining.

But there aren’t any silver linings for the Conservatives, especially when you look at how last night’s results compared with the Conservatives’ other byelection results since 2015.

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Detailed projections for all 127 ridings across Quebec ahead of the October 5 provincial election, as well as vote projections for smaller regions within the province, are available for subscribers below 👇

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Since I last updated The Writ’s Federal Vote and Seat Projection two weeks ago, the Conservatives have slid 1.6 points in the vote projection to 33.3% support, the lowest they’ve been since the projection started calculating an average after the 2025 election. If we extend the average to the Poll Tracker I ran for the CBC prior to that election, the Conservatives haven’t hit this mark since May 2023 — and not consistently since before Pierre Poilievre became leader of the party.

Accordingly, the Conservatives are down six seats in the projection and now lead in only 87 ridings across the country. Taking into account the tendency for the polls to under-estimate the Conservatives, as well as the number of close contests in the model, boosts the Conservatives to only an average of 103.2 seats, a drop of five over the last two weeks. As a result of the Conservative slide, the Liberals have increased their vote projection to 45.1%, their best score since early June, and lead in 217 ridings, also their best result in about two months.

There’s been little change for either the Bloc Québécois or the New Democrats since the last update, with the Bloc leading in 21 seats (down one) and the NDP ahead in 16 with 10.3% of the vote (unchanged for the seats, down 0.1 for the vote). The Greens are up to 2.8% in the projection, their best post-election score, but still only top out at two seats in the projection’s high range.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

What’s behind the Conservative tumble in the polls? It’s always a little tough to know if we’re looking at real trends when they develop over the summer, but the slide in the Conservatives’ projected support is not the result of simply one or two polls.

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With only the two trackers (Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research) publishing their latest findings over the last week — and it’s been over a month since we’ve seen a poll from any other pollster, with the sole exception of Abacus Data — the projection is largely swinging around at the margins based on what those trackers are finding.

That being said, the latest update puts the Liberals back ahead by 10 points, with 44.8% (+0.6 since last week) to the Conservatives’ 34.9% (-0.6). The NDP trails in third with 10.4%, largely unchanged from last week. These numbers put the Liberals ahead in 210 seats across the country, a gain of seven over last week, while the Conservatives are down six to 93 seats. The Bloc is down one seat to 22, while the NDP and Greens are unchanged at 16 and two, respectively.

Taking into account the historical tendency of polls to over- and under-estimate support for certain parties, and the number of close contests involving each party, the model has the Liberals winning an average of 202.4 seats, their best showing since the June 30 update. The Conservatives win 108.2 seats, so even with the assumption that the Conservatives beat their polls the party is still looking at more than 30 seat losses.

On average, the Bloc wins 18.8 seats and the NDP takes 12.7, just over the threshold for recognized party status.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

What does the model say about the three byelections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano? Let’s take a quick look.

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The Liberals are at 44.2% in the vote projection, largely unchanged from last week. But the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 35.5%, marking their third consecutive week of growth (they are up 0.9 points over that time). The party is also up two points since the June 2 update. This movement has dropped the Liberals to a lead in 203 ridings across the country, down 10 seats over the last three weeks, while the Conservatives are up seven seats over that period to 99.

Taking into account polling error and toss-ups, the Liberals win an average of 196 seats in the projection, down 2.3 seats from last week, while the Conservatives are up two seats to 113.6. That still puts the Liberals comfortably in majority territory (where they wind up in 89% of simulations), but they were as high as 215.5 seats little more than two months ago.

The New Democrats are down 0.6 points this week to 10.3% as both the Liaison and Nanos trackers, which have been the best pollsters for the NDP of late, have the party down. But the NDP is still leading in 16 seats and wins an average of 12.1 seats in the projection.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

The Bloc Québécois is at 27.2% in Quebec, enough to deliver them an average of 20.2 seats in the projection, while the Greens are holding at around 2%. They are leading in both Saanich—Gulf Islands and Kitchener Centre in the projection, but because of the Greens’ tendency to under-perform the polls, and the fact that neither of these seats are entirely safe for the party, the Greens only win an average of 1.2 seats. This means that in most simulations they win one or the other, but often not both.

Where are the other parties poised to make their seat gains — or suffer their losses? Let’s take a quick look.

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That dearth of data from a broad array of pollsters — since mid-June, the only other pollster to put out any new numbers was Abacus Data — should lead us to exercise caution when analyzing any new trends. With that caveat having been said, this week’s update to The Writ’s Federal Vote and Seat Projection has some numbers that we haven’t seen for months.

The Liberals lead with 44.1%, a drop of 0.5 points since last week and 0.9 points over two weeks. That’s the lowest level of support the model has awarded the Liberals since the February 17 update. The Liberal tally of 205 seats in which they lead is also the lowest since February 24, while the average projection of 198.3 seats marks the first time the Liberals have been sub-200 on this measure (which takes into account potential polling error and the number of tight races) since March 3.

Not surprisingly, when the Liberals are down (relatively speaking) the Conservatives and New Democrats tend to be up. The Conservatives’ 35% support and 98 seats are their best numbers since March 3, while the NDP registering 10.9% in the vote projection is their best score since before the 2025 election. The NDP is leading in 16 seats in the model and, on average, wins 12.8 seats. That puts them over the threshold of recognized party status with a little more confidence than we’ve seen over the last few weeks.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

Is there much to make of this? That’s hard to say. We’ve seen the two tracking polls oscillate up and down for every party, with each new developing trend seemingly reversing itself after a few weeks. But let’s take a bit of a closer look to determine if there’s anything to these numbers.

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The list of current and pending vacancies in the House of Commons grew to seven today, when the Liberals announced that Richard Martel, the Conservative MP for the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, had been appointed to the Senate.

I’ll delve a little deeper into this riding and what this move means in the Weekly Writ on Thursday. But what does the projection say about the Conservatives’ chances of holding this seat — and the Liberals’ chances of flipping it?

Before getting to that, this week’s update to the Federal Vote and Seat Projection shows little change from last week (or the week before that).

The Liberals remain in a commanding position with 44.6% support, which nets them an average of 201 seats in the seat projection. The Conservatives sit at 34.9% and an average of 110.2 seats, followed by the New Democrats at 10.3% and 11 seats on average. The Bloc Québécois is up a little bit in Quebec and leads in 22 seats, winning 19.5 on average.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

The Bloc is actually an interesting potential player in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord byelection. The party might be distracted by its efforts to hold Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton if the two byelections occur at the same time (presumably, the Liberals will want to make that happen) but it will be the third combattant in what looks like a three-cornered fight.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE - With tomorrow being Canada Day, the Weekly Writ will be taking a break to admire the fireworks. The Weekly Writ will be back on July 9. A new episode of The Numbers will still land in your inbox on this coming Thursday. Have a safe and happy Canada Day! 🍁

As Canadians prepare to mark the 159th anniversary of Confederation, the Liberals have good reason to celebrate. They remain ahead in the polls, would win a large majority if an election were held today and appear to have shaken off some of their recent softness in support.

This week’s update to The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projections put the Liberals back up to 45%, a gain of 0.4 points since last week. The party is projected to be leading in 213 ridings, an increase of four, and win an average of 207.2 seats in the projection (also an increase of four).

While the Liberals were helped by the addition to the model of last week’s Léger poll that had the party at 48%, as we’ll see below this week’s two trackers were also showing the Liberals in a better position than they were a few weeks ago.

The Conservatives are treading water with 34.6%, a tiny decrease of 0.1 points from last week, but the uptick for the Liberals (particularly in the Prairies) pushed the Conservatives down four seats to 92, with their average haul, after taking into account potential polling error and the number of tight races, dropping 3.7 seats to 106.6.

After four weeks in double-digits, the New Democrats have dropped back below the 10% threshold and are projected to have 9.8% support, a sizeable slide of 0.8 points since last week. That hasn’t shifted the NDP from their projected lead in 15 seats, though their average projection has slipped 0.7 to 10.2 seats, pushing them further away from the 12 seats required for recognized party status in the House of Commons.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

The Bloc Québécois is largely unchanged from last week at 5.9% (25.9% in Quebec) and 17.5 seats on average in the projection. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 2.3% and their average seat win is up 0.2 to 1.5 in the projection. They had a few good numbers in British Columbia in particular this past week.

Since I won’t have the opportunity to delve into this week’s polls in the Weekly Writ on Thursday, I’ll do so here. But first, a quick look at how the regional portrait looks across the country — and how things have shifted since Canada Day one year ago.

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There haven’t been many changes in this week’s update to The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection, with the slow decline of the Liberals in the seat projection continuing this week (with a caveat). But while we’ve seen the Conservatives either stabilize or bounce back in most of the country, the party’s support seems to be stubbornly low in British Columbia.

Before we delve into that, here’s where things stand this week:

The Liberals sit at 44.6% in the vote projection (+0.2 since last week) and are leading in 209 ridings across the country, down two. However, their average projection — which takes into account potential polling error as well as the number of close races — is up 1.5 seats to 203.2. This means that while the Liberals might be leading in fewer ridings than last week, they are in a better position to win the seats where they are ahead than they were in last week’s projection.

The Conservatives are also up 0.2 points to 34.7% and are leading in 96 ridings (+2) and win an average of 110.3 seats in the projection (+0.4). The New Democrats have held steady at 10.6% and are still leading in 15 ridings, though their average projection has fallen 0.8 seats to 10.9.

The Bloc Québécois is down slightly in the average projection (from 18.3 to 17.3 seats), while the Greens have slipped 0.2 points nationally to 2%.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

But let’s get back to British Columbia, which seems to be an outlier from the trends — and not only for the Conservatives, who have fallen behind the Liberals here by a greater margin than anywhere else in the country except Alberta. What gives?

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Nevertheless, the party remains at a very high cruising altitude.

The Liberals have dropped one percentage point in the vote projection since last week to 44.3%, giving them just under a 10-point lead over the Conservatives, who are up 0.6 points to 34.5%. This is the first time the Liberals have slipped below the 45% mark since the February 24 update of the projection.

These numbers put the Liberals ahead in 211 ridings across the country, a drop of eight, and net them an average of 201.7 seats (after taking into account the number of toss-ups and potential polling error).

The Conservatives now lead in 94 ridings, an increase of eight, and win an average of 109.9 seats (+6.4). That is the highest average seat wins for the party since early March.

The New Democrats sit at 10.6% in the vote projection, an increase of 0.6 points, and are leading in 15 ridings, unchanged from last week. They win an average of 11.7 seats in the projection, a jump of 0.7 that puts them just under the threshold of 12 required for recognized party status. Adding to the positive (relatively speaking) news for the NDP is that they have maintained double-digits in the vote projection for three consecutive weeks for the first time since before the election.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

The Bloc Québécois is largely unchanged from last week. It’s still leading in 21 seats in Quebec, but its average seat haul has dropped 0.4 points to 18.3 seats. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 2.2% and are down 0.2 seats to 1.4 on average, though they are projected to be leading in two — whether they’d really win them both is another question.

But what’s been behind most of the movement for the Liberals and the Conservatives? As usual, a lot of it comes down to Ontario.

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The Liberals remain well in front of the pack, however, with 45.3% of the vote (+0.2 from last week, thanks in large part to a big 50% in last week’s Léger poll and an uptick in the Nanos tracker). They are leading in 219 seats, down one, and win an average of 208.2 seats (-1.7) in the projection model’s simulations.

The Conservatives are up 0.4 points since last week’s update to 33.9%, giving them the lead in 86 ridings (+5) and netting them an average of 103.5 seats (+4) in the projection model. Much of this increase in the seat projection is in Ontario, where the Conservatives flipped nine seats back to them as the Liberals slipped below 50% and the Conservatives got themselves back over 35% after falling below that threshold in the two previous updates. Those swings were nearly made-up for by the Liberals, however, in B.C. and Quebec.

After surging in the projection last week, the New Democrats only fell back a little this week with 10% (-0.8). They are leading in 15 seats (-1) and win an average of 11 (-1) in the projection. That has them still flirting with, but not guaranteed to win, recognized party status.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

A small uptick for the Liberals in Quebec has flipped three seats back to them from the Bloc Québécois, which drops the Bloc down to leading in 21 seats and winning 18.7 (-1.6) on average.

Good numbers for the Greens in British Columbia have boosted them to 2.4% nationally (+0.3) and their average seat haul to 1.6 (+0.3), with their high range reaching three seats for the first time since the last election.

Of course, all of these numbers are merely a reflection of where public opinion is at the moment. They are unlikely to be tested at the ballot box anytime soon — except in at least five ridings across the country where sitting MPs have indicated they will resign over the summer. We don’t know when those resignations will actually occur or when byelections will be called to fill the vacancies. But where do things stand in those five ridings right now?

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Is it a blip? We’ll have to wait to find out.

The Liberals dropped one point in the vote projection to 45.1%, the lowest they’ve been since the end of February. The party now leads in 220 ridings across the country, a drop of 10 seats since last week, while their average number of seat wins has dropped 5.1 seats to 209.9.

The Conservatives and Bloc have hardly budged in the vote projection, but they’ve both jumped four seats apiece in the number of ridings in which they are projected to be leading with 81 and 24, respectively. Their average number of seat wins in the projection was up 0.9 and 1.5 seats, to 99.5 and 20.3, respectively. This reflects how a few toss-up ridings in which they were trailing last week have flipped over, but since they already had a decent chance of winning them their average number of seat wins hasn’t shifted so dramatically.

Not so for the New Democrats. The party is up 1.5 points nationally to 10.8%, the first time the NDP has hit double-digits since mid-January. The party is leading in 16 ridings, a gain of two since last week, but more importantly wins an average of 12.0 seats in the model. That’s a jump of 2.6 seats from last week and puts them in a position to regain recognized party status — even after taking into account the party’s tendency to under-perform the polls and the number of close contests the NDP is involved in.

For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:

What’s behind this jump for the New Democrats? A big part of it is the five-point jump in NDP support in this week’s Liaison Strategies poll, from 11% last week to 16% this week. The other polls added to the model in this update (from Pallas and Nanos) have the party in the more-usual 11% to 13% range, but the real test for the NDP will be whether their apparent bump into the low-to-mid-teens is replicated in the next set of polls from Abacus Data and Léger, which have routinely had the New Democrats stuck in single-digits.

I’ll delve more deeply into the polling numbers in the Weekly Writ newsletter on Thursday. Perhaps we’ll already have some more numbers to help us understand what may or may not be happening to the NDP. Stay tuned!