But, here we are. Though the polls registered a tightening of the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives in the closing days, Carney’s Liberals have retained enough of an advantage in some key battlegrounds to be the heavy favourites not only to win re-election, but to potentially secure a majority government as well.

WATCH THE RESULTS TONIGHT ON CPAC! - Join me, Michael Serapio and Catherine Lafrance starting at 7 PM ET / 4 PM PT for CPAC’s Election Results Special. I’ll be manning the results map as the votes are counted. You can find CPAC on your TV, stream on YouTube here or watch it on CPAC.ca here. Pro-tip: the show will be in both English and French, so if you are bilingual or want to practice your second language you can watch it on CPAC.ca without any translation (choose the ‘Original Language’ stream). I hope you’ll tune in!

Before we dive into what we can expect to happen in today’s federal election, we really do need to step back and marvel at what has happened since the beginning of the year. Here’s what the Poll Tracker looked like when, on January 6, Trudeau announced he would be stepping down as Liberal leader:

The Conservatives were leading with 44% support across the country and the Liberals were in free-fall, having dropped to 20% — just a single point above the NDP. The Conservatives were projected to win at least 206 seats and as many as 244. The odds of a Liberal victory were less than 1%.

Now, that same chart, but with the starting date set at January 6.

There were multiple factors that contributed to this turn-around, probably the biggest reversal of fortunes in modern Canadian political history. One was the resignation of Trudeau. His departure made it possible for some Liberals to reconsider the party again. The arrival of Carney — first as a candidate to replace Trudeau, then as the frontrunner — further boosted the Liberals, pulling away NDP supporters who had parked their vote with Jagmeet Singh’s party while Trudeau was still prime minister.

Then there was the volatility caused by Trump’s return to the presidency. His calls for Canada to become the 51st state prompted a rally-round-the-flag effect for insulted Canadians. His tariff policy caused uncertainty and economic turmoil. Poilievre’s Conservatives found themselves flat-footed and unable to grasp the moment that was before them, but Carney’s experience and calm demeanour contrasted positively not only with the Conservative leader, but with Trump himself.

Carney’s surge in the polls was similar to the honeymoons that new prime ministers John Turner and Kim Campbell enjoyed in 1984 and 1993. But in both of those cases, the honeymoon ended quickly and those leaders led their respective parties to their worst results ever up to that point. But the honeymoon didn’t end for Carney. His bubble never burst.

And that’s why the Liberals are the favourites heading into election day. The Poll Tracker awards the party an 89% chance of winning the most seats and a 70% chance of securing a majority government. You can look at the final projection in the Poll Tracker in detail here. Calls for each individual riding can be found by clicking on the banner below:

But while the numbers look good for the Liberals (and bad for everyone else), there is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the projections — and the potential for things to go not quite as expected. Let’s take a look at what to watch for each party, stating with the incumbents.

Liberals have all the advantages, but they need to win their tosses

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On Day One, Ford asked voters for a bigger mandate in order to take on Trump and outlast his administration. On Day Twenty-Eight, it looks like he’ll get it.

But there are still some questions that will only be answered once the ballot boxes are opened tonight. The first is whether the Progressive Conservatives will really get that bigger mandate and make history. No single premier has ever won three consecutive majority governments while also increasing the size of his or her caucus each time.

The second is, well, about second. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals have enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls over Marit Stiles’s New Democrats for that second spot throughout the campaign. But there are lingering questions about whether or not that lead is big enough to give the Liberals more seats. In 2022, the Liberals had 0.1 percentage points more support than the NDP across Ontario, but the NDP won nearly four times as many seats. The NDP’s vote efficiency is remarkable and it could still save them tonight. But has Crombie done enough to put the Liberals back into second place and avoid a third consecutive third-place finish?

I posted my final projection for the Ontario election earlier this morning, and the numbers are stark. The PCs are on track for a big majority but the runner-up position is on a knife’s edge.

A full breakdown of the Ontario projection, including seat-by-seat calls, is available for subscribers here.

You can also catch me tonight on CBC Radio, where I’ll be going through the results as soon as the polls close at 9 PM ET.

Now, let’s dive into what I’ll be watching.

A majority for sure. But will it be a bigger one?

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British Columbia was literally too close to call. New Brunswick was trending Liberal but the data was thin. Saskatchewan was supposed to be neck-and-neck but turned out to be more lopsided than expected.

Even so, it wasn’t nearly as lopsided as things are likely to be in Nova Scotia.

Tim Houston’s PCs have been leading in the polls since they came to power in August 2021 and the trends have been nothing but positive for them over the last few weeks of this (early) election campaign. The polls suggest that the PCs are on track to take roughly half of the votes and secure a big majority government — perhaps one of the biggest in recent memory. All that’s left to decide is who will form the tiny official opposition that will have to face-off against the Tory colossus on the other side of the aisle.

But will Houston pull off the landslide victory the polls are forecasting, bucking the anti-incumbent trend that cost Scott Moe’s party 14 seats, nearly cost David Eby his government and sent Blaine Higgs packing? Could the PCs win the largest governing caucus in Nova Scotia’s history in raw numbers (42 MLAs is the record, set by John Buchanan’s PCs in 1984) or win the largest share of seats by any party since the last two victories of Robert Stanfield in the 1960s?

Will the NDP return to the official opposition role it hasn’t held since before it came to power in 2009? And will the Liberals salvage enough seats to live to fight another day?

Clearly, there are still some questions that need to be answered tonight even if we have a very good idea of who will win.

So, join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of Nova Scotia’s election! It’ll kick-off when the polls close at 7 PM ET / 8 PM AT. You can watch on YouTube:

Now, let’s get into how the election looks likely to play out — and what the answers to those remaining questions are likely to be.

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The province has a stark urban-rural divide, but the two biggest cities of Regina and Saskatoon combine for only 26 of 61 seats in Saskatchewan. A near-sweep of the rural regions and smaller cities has been enough to ensure a Sask. Party majority, but the party of Brad Wall and Scott Moe has padded its majorities by adding suburban swing seats to that solid foundation.

Polls had been hinting that the Sask. Party’s dominance of the province’s political scene was diminishing, but there had been no plausible path for the opposition New Democrats to form a government. Even a month ago, the odds of another Sask. Party majority victory approached 100%.

Now? The Sask. Party might have only a little better than a 50-50 shot.

It still probably is the favourite, as the electoral map is exceedingly tough for the NDP. Carla Beck’s path to becoming premier is extremely narrow, and one slip-up will send her back to the opposition benches. But the path exists and the party appears to have the momentum. Multiple polls now put the NDP ahead of the Sask. Party across the province, something that hasn’t happened since before the NDP was ousted from office in 2007.

The Sask. Party might yet still survive thanks to its solid rural base. But the tremendous gains the NDP appear poised to make signal that the clock might be ticking on the Saskatchewan Party’s dynasty. Does that clock have four more years or just a few more hours left on it? We’ll find out tonight.

There will be no livestream of the results tonight from me and Philippe, as I am part of CBC Saskatchewan’s coverage of the election. You should be able to tune-in starting at 21:30 ET / 19:30 CT on your local CBC station (in Saskatchewan) for the pre-show and at 22:00 ET / 20:00 CT when the polls close on CBC News Network or YouTube (for everyone else)!

Let’s get into what to watch tonight and how each party could win (or lose) this shockingly close election.

Will the map save Scott Moe’s government?

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New Brunswickers know a thing or two about tight elections. In 2018, the PCs and Liberals were within one seat of each other. But at least they knew what the results were on election night — it was the machinations in the legislature that took weeks to settle.

The province could find itself in a similar situation at the end of the count tonight. Or it could find itself with a clear winner early on. Just as in B.C., where the two most plausible outcomes were either a toss-up or a clear NDP victory, the New Brunswick cat in Schrödinger’s ballot box seems to be either a close toss-up between the PCs and Liberals, or a comfortable Liberal victory.

We’ll have to wait until the boxes are opened tonight to find out which it is.

Alright — enough for tortured metaphors. The fact of the matter is that the polling data out of New Brunswick has been thin and it is difficult to make a confident prediction with so few numbers to base it on. What we have seen, however, points to a Liberal victory. Only two provincewide polls were published in the last days of the campaign, giving the Liberals a lead of nine to 10 points over the Progressive Conservatives, while polling in the three biggest cities of Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton all suggest the Liberals are poised to make significant gains.

Those three datapoints make the Liberals the favourites. It is hard to imagine that the PCs can win if they truly are nine or 10 points back or if they have lost as much ground in the three biggest cities as Mainstreet Research, Forum Research and Narrative Research suggest. If the PCs pull off a win, it’ll be due to something not picked up in the polls.

At least, not picked up in the few polls that have been published.

If, instead, the polls are right and Susan Holt’s Liberals do win either a minority or majority government, then they will have bucked a national trend that has dragged down the federal Liberals, along with many of their provincial cousins.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of the New Brunswick election results, tonight starting at 7 PM ET / 8 PM AT!

Let’s dive into the few numbers we have and see why the Liberals appear to be the favourite going into this election, why the PCs have an uphill (but not insurmountable) mountain to climb, and why the fate of the New Brunswick Greens could prove to be a decisive factor in the outcome.

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There’s no way to be very confident today. But the B.C. New Democrats are more likely to secure re-election than the B.C. Conservatives are to oust them from power. Most signs point to the NDP holding the advantage, including their lead in (most) polls, their edge in the electorally-decisive Lower Mainland and their strong support among the oldest voters who tend to cast their ballots in big numbers.

But the NDP does not hold an insurmountable lead even in the polls where it is ahead — and it isn’t ahead in all of them. The regional distribution of support seems to favour the NDP, but there is some inconsistency to it. The B.C. Conservatives have strong support among those between the ages of 35 and 54, who also tend to turnout in decent numbers. And the polls — if not always in British Columbia, then at least in the country as a whole — tend to under-estimate right-of-centre parties, at least when they do make errors.

In short, there’s good reason to not rule out John Rustad and his Conservatives in B.C.’s election. But the favourite still has to David Eby and his New Democrats — if only just.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of the B.C. election results, tonight starting at 11 PM ET / 8 PM PT!

Let’s delve into the numbers and break down why the NDP is favoured to win — and why the Conservatives still have a shot.

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No.

Going only by the provincewide polls, the Saskatchewan election might look like a toss-up. But the numbers beneath those toplines are far more favourable for the conservative Sask. Party than they are for the NDP. If that isn’t enough, the electoral map of the province, along with the regional distribution of each party’s support, comes down as Premier Scott Moe’s trump card.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Saskatchewan, E-49

The NDP has closed the gap on the Sask. Party and looks set to have its best performance since it last won an election in 2003. But the Sask. Party has a better electoral map, more promising support among older voters and more resources at hand. The NDP will need to grow its support, likely past 50%, and beat its polls to have a good shot at winning. While it can’t be ruled out as a possibility if the campaign goes badly for Scott Moe, he has all the cards he needs to play to win again.

While a defeat for the Sask. Party would be a tremendous upset, there are still good reasons for many of the government’s cabinet ministers and MLAs to be concerned about their personal futures. Let’s get into why this election campaign could be one of the most interesting ones in the province since the 2000s.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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Polling in this province has been rare and has largely come from one single polling firm. We were treated with another poll from a different pollster this summer, but those results only muddied the waters. Either the Liberals have a decent lead over the PCs, or the race is neck-and-neck.

It’s not possible to say which of those two perspectives is closer to the truth. The safer call at the moment is that New Brunswick’s election remains a toss-up. But, going a little further, it might be a Liberal-leaning toss-up — if only just.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for New Brunswick, E-48

At the very least, polls suggest that the Liberals and PCs are neck-and-neck. Usually, that is good news for the PCs because of a favourable electoral map. But the polls also suggest that the Liberals have reduced their vote inefficiency, which levels the playing field if the two parties are indeed running even in support. Blaine Higgs is not particularly popular, but it isn’t clear if Susan Holt is much more popular than him. The data is too spotty to make a clear call, which means New Brunswick remains a toss-up. But the PCs need more signs that they have an advantage somewhere to have a greater than 50/50 hope of re-election.

Let’s break down what we do know, as well as what we don’t, in what should be a hotly contested election campaign.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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Then B.C. United’s floor kept dropping and Conservative support kept rising. The Conservatives added former BCU MLAs to their caucus and moved definitively into second place. Maybe the NDP had a fight on its hands, but it was still the easy favourite to win.

Today? David Eby’s New Democrats remain the favourites. But easy favourites? No way. The cushion the NDP had a year ago has evaporated and the upcoming election is theirs to lose — and, if they’re not careful, they just might lose it.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-54

Back in May, the state of the race shifted from Likely to Lean New Democratic. It is narrowly remaining there today, though if the trends continue to move in the B.C. Conservatives’ favour this could easily become a toss-up. For now, the NDP remains the favourite thanks to its polling and fundraising edge, its more popular leader and the greater likelihood that the New Democrats will get a turnout advantage than will the Conservatives.

The next election in British Columbia will be difficult to predict. The province is on course for a re-alignment, as the upstart Conservatives replace the former Liberals as the main rival to the New Democrats. That could produce some surprising outcomes. But let’s break down why the NDP is still leading the race as it heads into uncharted waters.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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Picking the summer as the time to hold elections was an odd choice by Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government — and one, perhaps, that they are regretting. Speculation is rife that Houston will send Nova Scotians to the polls far earlier than next July.

If he does, his party will enter that campaign as the heavy favourites to win.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Nova Scotia, E-351

The Nova Scotia PCs have a significant lead in the polls and a regional distribution of support that gives them multiple paths to another majority government. Their fundraising is good, Tim Houston is more popular than his leadership rivals and the historical precedent points to a second term for the incumbent premier. The biggest wildcard might be whether or not Houston decides to gamble on an early election call, with all the risks and rewards that would come with it.

Nova Scotians could be going to the polls much sooner than 351 days from now. Let’s take a look at why the PCs are the favourites to win whenever the vote takes place.

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The polls show Susan Holt’s opposition Liberals and Blaine Higgs’s governing Progressive Conservatives within a few points of one another, with no trend suggesting that public opinion is moving in one direction or the other. Each party has their regions of strength, but they are also closely contesting the parts of New Brunswick that decide election winners.

There’s the wild card of the Greens, who hold three seats in the legislature, and the polling phantom of the New Democrats, still registering double-digit support despite not clearing 2% of the vote in 2020.

So, it’s a toss-up with lots to be settled — meaning the next few months, and the last weeks of the campaign, will matter.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for New Brunswick, E-133

The Liberals hold a narrow lead in the rare provincial polls conducted in New Brunswick, but their vote is traditionally inefficient. Those same polls suggest that the Liberal vote might be getting more efficient as support for the party grows in the anglophone south. Holt outpolls Higgs by a wider margin than her party does the PCs, which could boost Liberal support over the course of the campaign. But the PCs still have a good electoral map, strong bases of support and robust fundraising — and a potential trump card to play: Justin Trudeau.

Let’s dive into what makes the New Brunswick election so tough to call, and what factors could decide its outcome in October.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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Now, Premier David Eby and the NDP is one bad campaign away from going down to defeat as the B.C. Conservatives take advantage of the collapse of B.C. United to close the gap on the governing party. There are many questions that remain about the real strength of the Conservatives, but there is no doubt that the NDP will have a real fight on its hands in October — even if the fight remains the NDP’s to lose.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-151

In October, the 2024 B.C. election was graded as a Likely New Democratic victory. The NDP remains favoured, but the forecast has been downgraded to Lean New Democratic as the right-of-centre vote is increasingly consolidating behind the B.C. Conservatives. If support for the NDP and B.C. United continues to slip, the race will be a toss-up. But for now, the NDP’s organizational advantages, leadership edge and regional and demographic distribution of support keeps them the favourite to win this fall.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are now only the marginal favourites to win in October, after being such heavy favourites only a few months ago.

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But it could still prove to be the narrowest victory the Sask. Party has had to win since first coming to power in 2007, as the New Democrats look set to make some significant gains in the biggest cities — just not enough to put a re-elected Sask. Party government in any real doubt.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Saskatchewan, E-287

Canada’s current longest-serving government looks likely to extend its time in office for another four years, as the Sask. Party continues to lead in the polls and fundraising, as has consistently been the case with few interruptions since 2007. The Sask. Party also has a solid base of rural seats to count on, leaving the NDP with few realistic paths to victory. While parties to the right of Premier Scott Moe might cause him a few headaches, the chances that only two parties will be represented in the legislature after the voting is over remain high.

Saskatchewan is increasingly Canada’s most conservative province, at least judging by polling and election results. But that doesn’t mean the Saskatchewan Party can expect the same clean sweep that has become a regular occurrence for the federal Conservatives in the province. The NDP will put up a fight — maybe its strongest fight since it was relegated to the opposition benches nearly 17 years ago.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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But who will have the better hand on election day?

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for New Brunswick, E-315

The New Brunswick Liberals and their leader Susan Holt have marginally better polling than do the Progressive Conservatives and Premier Blaine Higgs. Both parties are raising decent amounts of money and have regional bases from which to build upon. Higgs is looking for a third-term when incumbents have become unpopular and re-election has been tough to pull off in New Brunswick, but the electoral geography is tilted in the PCs’ favour. Nothing suggests either party has a distinct advantage. Whoever wins, it could be a close result.

As we look to the end of 2023, let’s cast our eyes to what could be the most interesting election in 2024.

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But two years is a long time.

If the Conservatives can keep on their current path, they will be the heavy favourites to win the next election. But there is a lot that can change between now and 2025. Some of that is within the Conservatives’ control. But a lot of it isn’t.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Canada, E-728

The Conservatives have surged in the polls and have built sizable leads in important battleground provinces like Ontario and British Columbia. They are out-fundraising the Liberals by more than two-to-one and Pierre Poilievre’s personal ratings have improved while Justin Trudeau’s have worsened. The Conservatives are in a strong position to win the next election, but there are significant unknowns that could change the landscape dramatically between now and the next scheduled election in 2025.

In this report, I’ll take a deep dive into the national and regional polling numbers, as well as the factors that could play a role in deciding the outcome of the next election. Before we do that, however, let’s start with how we got here.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

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While their support is holding up well enough, the real reason the NDP can look ahead to next year with confidence is the split of the vote to the right of them as the newly-branded B.C. United (formerly known as the B.C. Liberals) has its support gobbled up by a fledgling Conservative Party.

If this environment endures through to next October, then the New Democrats could win a massive majority of B.C.’s seats — even if they take less of the vote in 2024 than they did in 2020.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-369

Whether it be in voting intentions, leader approval ratings or fundraising, David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats have a wide advantage over their rivals, an advantage that is magnified all the more by the nearly even split of the anti-NDP vote between B.C. United and the Conservatives. The NDP doesn’t need to make seat gains to secure re-election, but if that split continues through to next year then virtually all paths will lead to an even bigger majority victory for the New Democrats in 2024.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are such heavy favourites to win next year’s election.

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There’s little in the numbers that suggest that Heather Stefanson and the Progressive Conservatives can hold on to their government. But they aren’t so far out of contention that they can’t still hold on to a glimmer of hope — if only a glimmer.

The polling in this Manitoba campaign has been relatively light, and that is one of the reasons an NDP victory can’t be said to be a sure thing. Several polls were conducted over the first few weeks and published at around the midpoint of the campaign, and most of them pointed to an NDP advantage. After that midpoint, it was crickets from the pollsters — until yesterday when some new numbers were finally published, those polls coming from Research Co. and Mainstreet Research. The first put the NDP ahead by nine points, the second put the gap at 6.6 points.

Neither of these two surveys suggested that opinions recorded earlier in the campaign had shifted all that much, adding further weight to what those earlier surveys were saying. But it is a lot to hang the expectations of a change of government on just two polls. If the PCs can manage to beat those polls, this likely NDP victory could turn into a toss-up contest. If, instead, the NDP matches its polling numbers or even out-performs them, then this could prove to be a very rough night for the governing PCs. That’s the range of plausible outcomes this evening — from a close, nail-biter finish to an NDP romp. That is not a favourable range for the PCs.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on YouTube at 8 PM CT / 9 PM ET for our live analysis of the Manitoba election results as they come in:

So, let’s take a look at the paths for government that the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives have. They both have a path. But the NDP’s is far wider and can take many different routes, while the PCs need more than a little luck to fall their way.

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Right now, you have to give the edge to Kinew and the NDP. But the odds that the PCs might be able to hold on look better than they did when they had only one year to try to turn things around.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Manitoba, E-92

While the PCs might be closing the gap, the New Democrats still have a wide lead in Winnipeg, have the more popular leader and have matched the PCs in fundraising, suggesting they can go toe-to-toe with the governing party. Turnout, however, could benefit the PCs. In the end, the election could come down to a handful of seats in the Winnipeg suburbs.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are still the narrow favourites to win in October.

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The first sees the count go down to the wire, with a contest that’s been billed as one of the closest in the province’s history living up to the hype. A few seats in the Calgary suburbs decide the outcome and either Danielle Smith’s incumbent United Conservatives or Rachel Notley’s opposition New Democrats come out just ahead and form the slimmest of majority governments.

The second sees all the coin flips that appear weighted in the UCP’s favour indeed landing to Smith’s advantage and the United Conservatives prevailing by a relatively comfortable seat margin.

On balance, the second seems more probable than the first. It means the UCP enters this election day as the favourites to win — not the heavy favourites, but the favourites nonetheless.

Join The Writ’s livestream starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET for some live analysis of the results of the Alberta election as the ballots are counted:

The final polls of the campaign point to a narrow UCP win. All but one of the 10 pollsters who published numbers over the final days gave the edge to the United Conservatives, though only four put the lead at more than three points. Nearly all have put the UCP ahead in the all-important battleground of Calgary, a place where the New Democrats probably need to lead by at least a couple of points to have a chance at coming out with enough seats to form a government.

The UCP’s seat floor is simply too high, with at least 38 or 39 rock-solid seats in the outer suburbs of Calgary and Edmonton and in rural Alberta. Only a few tosses, perhaps five or six, need to fall their way for the UCP to scrape by with at least 44 seats. The NDP needs to win about three times as many marginal seats to have a shot.

The electoral math was always going to be difficult for the New Democrats. Their best shot at making the equation work was Danielle Smith.

But the polls suggest that the New Democrats have failed to make the case, at least to enough Albertans, that Smith poses a greater risk to the province than the return of an NDP government.

On average, Notley has slightly better personal approval ratings than Smith. In polls by Janet Brown Opinion Research, Abacus Data, Research Co. and Mainstreet Research, the NDP leader averages a net +6 while Smith is a net -4.

But when it comes down to a choice, both Ipsos/Global News and Research Co. show Smith ahead of Notley on who Albertans prefer to be premier by between two and five points. More significantly, Abacus found that Albertans see both Smith and Notley as equally the “most risky” and the “safer choice”. If the NDP had to make this a referendum on Smith, the result isn’t decisive enough to carry the day for the New Democrats.

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Not that an opportunity wasn’t always there. While Abacus gave the UCP a lead of just one percentage point among decided voters across the province, it also found that the UCP would win by a margin of 17 points if someone other than Danielle Smith was leader of that party. While this is a hypothetical scenario in which Albertans can substitute their ideal (non-existent) UCP leader in the place of Smith, it still suggests that the conservative brand of the UCP is far stronger than Smith’s brand.

Smith’s leadership of the UCP has given the New Democrats a shot. The NDP has put itself in contention, which is an impressive feat. Polls suggest more Albertans would vote for the NDP today than when the party last formed government in 2015. But they also suggest that the NDP’s ceiling is at about the same level as the UCP’s floor.

It’s why the result tonight could be so close. But if the NDP falls short of peak performance, it’s also why the UCP could come out of this with a solid win.

It’s all about that UCP base

When Danielle Smith took over the United Conservatives, she publicly mused about her electoral strategy: hold the rural areas, and if the UCP can retain just enough of its seats in Calgary that’ll put the party over the 44-seat mark needed to stay in office.

It looks like that strategy has a good shot of working.

Outside of the greater Calgary and Edmonton regions, there are 26 seats in which the UCP can virtually guarantee a victory. In the southern suburbs of Calgary and just outside the city limits of both Calgary and Edmonton, there are another 11 seats the UCP can still win by 15 points or more even in the current climate.

That puts the UCP just seven short of 44, and it isn’t too hard to find those seven seats. They have options: strength outside the two big cities could win them Lesser Slave Lake, Lethbridge-East and Banff-Kananaskis. A good performance in the so-called Edmonton donut could net the UCP Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Morinville-St. Albert and Strathcona-Sherwood Park. At that point, the UCP just needs one of the marginals in Calgary to get to 44.

Don’t like that path? Then the UCP can instead over-perform in Calgary and win seats like Fish Creek, Peigan, Foothills, Glenmore, Bow, North and North West. Without winning any of the marginals outside of Calgary that would put the UCP at 44.

The UCP doesn’t need either strategy to play out perfectly, as a reduced combination of these two paths puts them well over 44 — and potentially over 50 seats if both play out. Simply put, the UCP has options.

Polling Consensus: With few exceptions, the UCP has polled between 49% and 52% across the province, with around 47% to 51% in Calgary, 35% to 41% in Edmonton and between 57% and 66% in the rest of the province. Don’t be surprised if the UCP significantly over-performs in the rural areas, boosting their overall vote share without necessarily netting them many more seats.

Seat Estimate: 40 to 56 seats, with somewhere around to 44-51 being the most likely. It comes down to Calgary, with very few swing seats in the rest of the province. Anywhere from 11 to 22 UCP seats in and around Calgary is plausible, and that means the difference between government and opposition.

The hope for a best case scenario

Let’s take a step back for a moment. That the NDP could win this election is remarkable.

This is Alberta, after all. While pockets of progressivism have grown, the province remains a conservative one. Its history is littered with the ruins of past political empires that, once collapsed, have never risen from the ashes. Yet, here we are with a serious chance that a former governing party could return to power.

The only time that a party that once governed had even a sniff of governing again was when the Liberals made the PCs sweat in 1993 — but even in that example no more than a handful of Albertans might have had hazy memories of when the Liberals were last in office in 1921.

Against a fractured conservative movement, the NDP still managed to cobble together nearly 41% of the vote in 2015 and win the election. It was a very low vote share for a winning party in Alberta, but it was enough.

Now, the NDP is garnering the support of at least 44% of voters. It means people who have never voted for the New Democrats before will vote for them today. The Alberta NDP is a party that can contend for government — and not just in unusual circumstances.

Ten years ago, that would have been unthinkable. Today, the New Democrats could win again. And, if they don’t pull it off now, there’s no reason to believe they can’t pull it off in the future.

But the party is reaching its limits. In a two-horse race with a vote that isn’t likely to be any more efficient than the UCP’s, the NDP needs to be approaching 50% to have a good shot at government. The New Democrats have only rarely hit that mark during the last few years, even at the height of the UCP’s unpopularity under Jason Kenney.

If the UCP has many paths, the NDP doesn’t.

In a best case scenario, the NDP could win four seats outside the two big cities: both Lethbridges, Banff-Kananaskis and Lesser Slave Lake. The party would need to win all 20 seats in Edmonton (not unreasonable as it went 19-for-20 in 2019) and make gains in the donut: Sherwood Park, Morinville-St. Albert and Strathcona-Sherwood Park, in addition to the St. Albert seat the party won in 2019.

With this playing out as the NDP would hope, the party still needs to win at least 16 seats in Calgary. They currently hold three: Buffalo, McCall and Mountain View.

A few seem like easy pick-ups: Currie, Falconridge, Klein and Varsity. That puts the NDP up to seven. To find nine others, the NDP can look to seats like Acadia, Beddington, Cross, East, Edgemont, Elbow and North East.

That’s a plausible path, but still difficult. The NDP lost Calgary-Acadia by 20 points in 2019. But if the NDP is unable to make gains elsewhere — Lesser Slave Lake, Morinville-St. Albert and Strathcona-Sherwood Park won’t be easy — then the NDP needs to find other seats in Calgary to flip. That would be seats like Bow, Foothills and Glenmore that the UCP won by more than 20 points four years ago.

The path is there. It’s just narrow. Polls have suggested the NDP is doing very well in central Calgary as well as in the northwestern and northeastern suburbs. The southern suburbs, however, have proven more resilient for Smith and the UCP.

If everything goes right, the NDP can win. But a lot of these seats in the NDP’s best case scenario would likely be won by a handful of points. If, instead, the NDP comes up just short, the result could look a lot worse for the New Democrats in the seat count than the party might otherwise deserve.

Polling Consensus: The polls have been very consistent for the NDP at between 44% and 48%, with half of pollsters giving it exactly 46% of the vote. The party is scoring around 45% to 49% in Calgary, 55% to 60% in Edmonton and 29% to 40% in the rest of the province. Poor results in the rural areas and/or strong results in Edmonton could distort the NDP’s overall vote share compared to its seat results.

Seat Estimate: 31 to 47 seats, with 36 to 43 being the most likely. If the UCP beats its polls, the NDP could easily find itself in the low 30s.

Small parties likely to be very small

A quick note on the other parties in the running. While they could have some limited impact in specific ridings, the inability of any other party to run candidates across the province means their overall scores are going to be very low.

The Greens are running 41 candidates, with all but eight of them in and around the two biggest cities. Nearly half of their candidates will be in Edmonton where the NDP is likely to win by big margins, but they are also running 15 candidates in Calgary. The New Democrats could resent that if they come up just short.

The right-wing Solidarity Movement of Alberta could play the same spoiler role for the UCP in Calgary, where 23 of their 38 candidates are running.

The Alberta Party has just 19 candidates on the ballot, nearly half of them outside of Calgary and Edmonton where their impact will be limited. Their scores in Calgary-Elbow and Brooks-Medicine Hat, where leader Barry Morishita is running, will be worth watching.

Other parties include the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition and Independence Party (16 and 14 candidates, respectively, mostly in rural areas), while the Liberals have 13 candidates on the ballot, 10 of them in the two big urban areas.

If it’s really close, we might be parsing some of these parties’ results in a handful of ridings. But, we have to remember that not everyone casting a ballot for these parties would otherwise vote for the UCP or NDP if they had no other choice.

Polling Consensus: Pollsters are likely over-stating the support of these small parties as none of them are running even a half-slate of candidates. Total support for third parties is generally between 3% and 5%, with no single party registering much more than 1% when included as an option.

Seat Estimate: Barring a local campaign that has evaded everyone’s attention (i.e. Haldimand–Norfolk in the 2022 Ontario election), there will be no third-party or Independent candidates even close to being elected.

Turnout and enthusiasm

The ace in the hole for the United Conservatives is their likely turnout advantage. Polls routinely give the UCP a lead of between 10 and 20 points among older Albertans. As they tend to vote in much bigger numbers than the young people who are supporting the NDP by similar margins, that should boost the UCP’s results compared to their polls.

If that happens, and especially if it happens across the province, then the UCP is assured of victory. If it doesn’t happen, or if it doesn’t happen in Calgary in particular, then it’ll come down to each party’s ability to get out their vote.

That’s where the NDP’s hope lies. While it is by no means uniform across the board, polls generally show a little more enthusiasm among the NDP’s supporters than among the UCP’s supporters. If that means more New Democrats come out while proportionately more of the UCP’s backers stay home, the NDP could mitigate the UCP’s lead among older voters. Then the election becomes a seat-by-seat, polling district-by-polling district contest.

So, there’s plenty of uncertainty going into today’s election. The UCP has the advantages. It’s leading in the polls in the places it needs to win. But the lead is narrow and both parties have a plausible path to victory — who will take it?

Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives still hold all the advantages of being the incumbent conservative government in a conservative province. They have a solid base and a high floor.

While Rachel Notley’s New Democrats also have a solid base, their ceiling is low and their margin for error is tiny. Fortunately for them, their opponent is error prone and giving them every chance to return to power.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

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In February, I judged this contest to be a toss-up between the New Democrats and the United Conservatives. With less than 50 days to go, I still consider it a toss-up. But, if there was a category between toss-up and lean UCP, that’s where I would end up.

Grenier Political Report for Alberta, E-49

Polls suggest the UCP and NDP are tied across the province as well as in Calgary, where the election will be decided. The prospects for significant NDP gains in Calgary are very good, but the last few seats that would get them to 44 will be difficult to win. The NDP also faces some serious challenges when it comes to turnout, as the UCP has far greater support among older voters. But despite the UCP’s intrinsic advantages, the potential for its leader to lose an election she should otherwise win remains too high.

Let’s break down the upcoming Alberta election from every angle, starting, as we always do, with how we got here.

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