The Writ: The Numbers Podcast

The Numbers: Alberta’s vote and the battle for BC

Éric Grenier — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 19:42:40 GMT

As the polls had predicted, the Remain side won the Alberta referendum in a landslide, as Albertans opted for the status quo in their province. But in next-door British Columbia, voters might be about to back a change of a different kind.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of Alberta’s referendum and how the polls performed. We also take a look at where some of the last polls of the B.C. election campaign stand as the NDP’s David Eby looks to be in trouble as his party falls behind Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives. Plus, we have federal numbers to dissect (what is going on with the Liberals in Alberta?) and new polls from elsewhere in the country, including a neck-and-neck race in Toronto — and Saskatchewan?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The extended and bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription or a YouTube membership.

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The Numbers: Will Eby’s snap call be a blunder for the ages?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:43:23 GMT

Little more than a week remains in the B.C. election campaign that the NDP’s David Eby set in motion, two years ahead of schedule. The leaders debate took place last night and things could still change. But the polls are not looking good for the New Democrats. Are they about to lose this election and give Lorne Doerkson and his B.C. Conservatives an unexpected victory?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest polling numbers out of British Columbia. We also set up Monday’s referendum on Alberta independence, take a peek at new federal polls and chat about the mayor’s race in Toronto, where the race seems to be tightening. Then, we close with a short Quiz (it’s back!) and an extended mailbag segment that is available for our members.

The extended and bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription or a YouTube membership.

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The Numbers: Quebec wipeout, BC nail-biter

Éric Grenier — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 19:12:09 GMT

It’s not very often we see a party go from a landslide victory in one election to a complete wipeout in the next. But that’s what happened on Monday when the Coalition Avenir Québec was reduced to zero seats after winning 90 in the last Quebec provincial election. But the CAQ’s wipeout did not deliver the Parti Québécois a majority government. What happened?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of the Quebec election and what it means for politics in the province going forward. We also lay out the state of the race in British Columbia, where Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives are making David Eby’s New Democrats sweat. Plus, we chat about the latest federal polls, where things stand in Toronto’s mayoral race and highlight some new numbers out of Atlantic Canada. Could the Greens elect their first government next year in Prince Edward Island?

The extended and bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Carney hits new highs, Conservatives risk new lows

Éric Grenier — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 19:15:31 GMT

Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent history. Meanwhile, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives drops to new lows as an upcoming resignation means the party will face another tough byelection in the coming months.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the federal polling landscape and the upcoming byelection in Parry Sound—Muskoka. We then take a look at where the polls are heading in the ongoing Quebec and British Columbia provincial elections, before chatting about new developments in Alberta and Manitoba. We then answer questions from our members, with an extended edition of the mailbag available on Patreon or via an Apple subscription.

The extended and bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Was it a good idea for David Eby to call an election in BC?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 19:30:25 GMT

B.C. Premier David Eby has staked his government on an early election, pitching to voters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty forces him to request a new mandate from voters. But could the snap election call backfire if those voters instead decide that it was a cynical attempt to take advantage of the disarray within the B.C. Conservative Party?

This week on The Numbers, we break down Eby’s decision to call an early election and how that could play out in the coming weeks. We also discuss some of the latest federal polls that have nothing but good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and a stunning poll out of Manitoba that has the NDP’s Wab Kinew at record-breaking levels of support. Finally, we take a look at the Quebec election campaign that is entering the final stages.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: An upset win in Alberta and a snap election in B.C.?

Éric Grenier — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 20:06:14 GMT

An investor’s summit, a trip to the European Union that could begin potentially closer ties in the future and, of course, there’s Donald Trump. There’s plenty going on in federal politics right now. But there’s also a lot of upheaval happening in Western Canada. Just what is going on?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new developments in Alberta and British Columbia. The Alberta NDP won an upset byelection victory in Calgary this week in a vote that could represent a serious rebuke and warning signal to Premier Danielle Smith. In B.C., the Conservative Party is now trailing by a wide margin in a new poll as the party continues to disintegrate. Could Premier David Eby call a snap election to take advantage of it?

We also chat about where things stand on the national stage as Mark Carney’s Liberals open up a wider lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, as well as how Canadians might feel about closer ties to Europe. We then delve into some provincial polling and take another look at the ongoing Quebec election campaign before we answer a few questions from our Patreon members.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus content several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Carney gets his Trump bump

Éric Grenier — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:22:47 GMT

A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump?

Well, we have the answer. And the answer is yes.

Recent polls show that support for Mark Carney personally and for the Liberals more broadly has increased over the last few weeks as Canadians get behind the prime minister’s decision to cease trade negotiations with the United States. Polls also show that Canadians support counter-tariffs and no compromise with the Americans, a feeling that is unlikely to dissipate as the Trump administration continues to insult and belittle the country.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the latest federal polls. We also take a look at the ongoing struggles of Pierre Poilievre as his party falls further back. Plus, we break down the latest in the Quebec election campaign and give our thoughts on what to make of the three Ontario provincial byelections that occurred last week.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Liberals deal Poilievre a blow in byelections

Éric Grenier — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 19:35:19 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s byelections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blow. What do the results say about support for the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc, and what do they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down what happened on Monday night. We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers, as well as lay out the state of the race as the Quebec election enters the second week of the campaign. Plus, we preview tonight’s provincial byelections in Ontario and take a look at some new polling numbers out of Alberta.

We also answer questions from our members, including on what is happening with the B.C. Conservative Party. To listen to the extended mailbag segment, join our Patreon right here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Will Carney get another Trump bump?

Éric Grenier — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 20:03:02 GMT

It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and insults flew back and forth across the U.S.-Canada border, notably between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. But how are Canadians reacting — and going to react — to Mark Carney’s handling of the issue, as well as these renewed attacks on the country from the unpopular U.S. president?

The Numbers is back this week (and for the long haul!) to take a look at what the polls say about how Canadians are digesting the news, including in Ontario where Ford has appeared to have rebounded. Plus, with three federal byelections scheduled on Monday in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano, we play our usual game of over/under. Can the Liberals (or Bloc) pick up Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, or will the Conservatives avoid losing their first seat in a byelection in nearly a decade?

Then, with Quebec’s election call expected on Thursday (hence our one-day-early episode), we break down the state of the race with just hours to go before its official launch.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre's problematic polls

Éric Grenier — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 20:09:36 GMT

The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%. What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming byelections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader. We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three byelections. Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we'd give an early election call.

The extended mailbag (about extra 25 minutes) is available for the podcast’s Patreon members and Apple subscribers. If you’d like to get the full mailbag, as well as early and ad-free episodes and other bonuses, you can watch or listen to the episode on our Patreon page.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Just how big is the Liberal lead, really?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 19:42:54 GMT

New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of differing poll numbers that aren’t all good news for Mark Carney (though they are mostly bad news for Pierre Poilievre). We also discuss the calling of three byelections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Ontario that has Doug Ford frowning, and Philippe is back with The Quiz!

The podcast will be taking a break next week. We’ll be back in two weeks!

Did you miss our politics/astronomy quiz from earlier this week? You can join the Patreon and watch or listen to the episode here.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Will Trump's new tariffs move the polls?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 20:01:21 GMT

An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada. How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the potential impact of another tariff fight on Mark Carney’s poll numbers. We also break down the results of a provincial byelection in Manitoba that has more good news for Premier Wab Kinew, and chat about some new polls on the popularity of premiers David Eby and Danielle Smith. We then answer some member questions from the mailbag, with the full segment being available to Patreon members here.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Maybe we were wrong?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:13:24 GMT

We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead. So, we start with some mea culpas, and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further down the line.

In addition, on this week’s episode of The Numbers we breakdown the latest federal poll numbers, as well as a new survey on how Canadians feel about the construction of new pipelines. We also try to make sense of yet another poll out of Nova Scotia that paints yet another different portrait of the province’s political landscape. Then, we close with a Green-hued Quiz.

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The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: New leader, who dis?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:57:56 GMT

Don’t you know who I am?

For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words. We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: New Leaders Draft

Éric Grenier — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:54:15 GMT

With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.

The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.

Who will win the first edition of the New Leaders Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Will it be a cruel summer for Carney or Poilievre?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:40:11 GMT

With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the new federal polls that have been published over the last week. We also break down some provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and New Brunswick, as well as discuss the results of a provincial byelection in Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe is back with a 1979-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Aiming for redemption in the Quiz

Éric Grenier — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:08:36 GMT

The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another challenging Quiz. Can I get any redemption after being humbled so thoroughly?

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: A new polling low for Poilievre?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:26:42 GMT

More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux. Then, we take a look at the approval ratings of provincial premiers, including Doug Ford’s dropping support. We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals. Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 19:32:32 GMT

In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.

But what’s really going on?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward. Then, Philippe has a Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 28 May 2026 20:03:54 GMT

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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