The Writ: The Numbers Podcast

The Numbers: Carney gets his Trump bump

Éric Grenier — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:22:47 GMT

A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump?

Well, we have the answer. And the answer is yes.

Recent polls show that support for Mark Carney personally and for the Liberals more broadly has increased over the last few weeks as Canadians get behind the prime minister’s decision to cease trade negotiations with the United States. Polls also show that Canadians support counter-tariffs and no compromise with the Americans, a feeling that is unlikely to dissipate as the Trump administration continues to insult and belittle the country.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the latest federal polls. We also take a look at the ongoing struggles of Pierre Poilievre as his party falls further back. Plus, we break down the latest in the Quebec election campaign and give our thoughts on what to make of the three Ontario provincial byelections that occurred last week.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Liberals deal Poilievre a blow in byelections

Éric Grenier — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 19:35:19 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s byelections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blow. What do the results say about support for the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc, and what do they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down what happened on Monday night. We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers, as well as lay out the state of the race as the Quebec election enters the second week of the campaign. Plus, we preview tonight’s provincial byelections in Ontario and take a look at some new polling numbers out of Alberta.

We also answer questions from our members, including on what is happening with the B.C. Conservative Party. To listen to the extended mailbag segment, join our Patreon right here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Will Carney get another Trump bump?

Éric Grenier — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 20:03:02 GMT

It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and insults flew back and forth across the U.S.-Canada border, notably between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. But how are Canadians reacting — and going to react — to Mark Carney’s handling of the issue, as well as these renewed attacks on the country from the unpopular U.S. president?

The Numbers is back this week (and for the long haul!) to take a look at what the polls say about how Canadians are digesting the news, including in Ontario where Ford has appeared to have rebounded. Plus, with three federal byelections scheduled on Monday in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano, we play our usual game of over/under. Can the Liberals (or Bloc) pick up Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, or will the Conservatives avoid losing their first seat in a byelection in nearly a decade?

Then, with Quebec’s election call expected on Thursday (hence our one-day-early episode), we break down the state of the race with just hours to go before its official launch.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre's problematic polls

Éric Grenier — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 20:09:36 GMT

The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%. What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming byelections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader. We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three byelections. Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we'd give an early election call.

The extended mailbag (about extra 25 minutes) is available for the podcast’s Patreon members and Apple subscribers. If you’d like to get the full mailbag, as well as early and ad-free episodes and other bonuses, you can watch or listen to the episode on our Patreon page.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Just how big is the Liberal lead, really?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 19:42:54 GMT

New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of differing poll numbers that aren’t all good news for Mark Carney (though they are mostly bad news for Pierre Poilievre). We also discuss the calling of three byelections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Ontario that has Doug Ford frowning, and Philippe is back with The Quiz!

The podcast will be taking a break next week. We’ll be back in two weeks!

Did you miss our politics/astronomy quiz from earlier this week? You can join the Patreon and watch or listen to the episode here.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Will Trump's new tariffs move the polls?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 20:01:21 GMT

An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada. How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the potential impact of another tariff fight on Mark Carney’s poll numbers. We also break down the results of a provincial byelection in Manitoba that has more good news for Premier Wab Kinew, and chat about some new polls on the popularity of premiers David Eby and Danielle Smith. We then answer some member questions from the mailbag, with the full segment being available to Patreon members here.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Maybe we were wrong?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:13:24 GMT

We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead. So, we start with some mea culpas, and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further down the line.

In addition, on this week’s episode of The Numbers we breakdown the latest federal poll numbers, as well as a new survey on how Canadians feel about the construction of new pipelines. We also try to make sense of yet another poll out of Nova Scotia that paints yet another different portrait of the province’s political landscape. Then, we close with a Green-hued Quiz.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE ON APPLE PODCASTS

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: New leader, who dis?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:57:56 GMT

Don’t you know who I am?

For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words. We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: New Leaders Draft

Éric Grenier — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:54:15 GMT

With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.

The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.

Who will win the first edition of the New Leaders Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Will it be a cruel summer for Carney or Poilievre?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:40:11 GMT

With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the new federal polls that have been published over the last week. We also break down some provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and New Brunswick, as well as discuss the results of a provincial byelection in Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe is back with a 1979-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Aiming for redemption in the Quiz

Éric Grenier — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:08:36 GMT

The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another challenging Quiz. Can I get any redemption after being humbled so thoroughly?

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: A new polling low for Poilievre?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:26:42 GMT

More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux. Then, we take a look at the approval ratings of provincial premiers, including Doug Ford’s dropping support. We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals. Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 19:32:32 GMT

In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.

But what’s really going on?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward. Then, Philippe has a Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 28 May 2026 20:03:54 GMT

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Carney, Poilievre and Lewis. Buy or sell?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 21 May 2026 19:19:44 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?

This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

Les chiffres : Fréchette fait grimper la CAQ
La CAQ est-elle de retour dans la course ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, nous revenons sur le plus récent sondage Léger, qui mesure une forte amélioration de la satisfaction envers le gouvernement ainsi qu'une remontée caquiste dans les intentions de vote. Nous discutons également de la nouvelle projection Qc125, qui continue de faire du Parti québécois le favori, tout en montrant une course plus complexe et volatile qu'il y a quelques semaines.

Bref, un portrait fascinant d'une opinion publique québécoise en plein mouvement et imprégné d'incertitude...

The Numbers: Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 14 May 2026 19:43:05 GMT

This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government. We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support. Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a byelection-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Carney's got the boomers — and the youths, too?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 07 May 2026 19:25:06 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis?

This week on The Numbers, we take a dive into some of the latest federal polls. We also break down new fundraising numbers and discuss the ongoing Conservative leadership race (and provincial voting intentions) in British Columbia. We then close with a prime ministerial Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Trio of vacancies to test Carney, Poilievre and Lewis

Éric Grenier — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 19:40:09 GMT

This past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate Erskine-Smith is also promising to resign his seat once he makes his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (and a provincial nomination) official. These trio of byelections, whenever they are called, will prove to be stiff tests for Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis.

This week on The Numbers, we break down what will be at stake in these three contests and discuss how they might play out on the electoral calendar. We also look at new polls that suggest Doug Ford might be in trouble in Ontario, as well as some new voting and independence numbers out of Alberta. Then, we close with a Quiz submitted by one of our listeners.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre now has time. Is that good or bad?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 19:24:58 GMT

With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals. But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a little on the party’s leader. We also take a look at the national polling scene and break down some new numbers out of Quebec. We then close with a Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

The Numbers: Majority means no election soon, right?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 19:28:05 GMT

With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville). We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on: