The Writ: The Numbers Podcast

The Numbers: A new polling low for Poilievre?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:26:42 GMT

More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux. Then, we take a look at the approval ratings of provincial premiers, including Doug Ford’s dropping support. We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals. Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.

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The Numbers: Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 19:32:32 GMT

In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.

But what’s really going on?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward. Then, Philippe has a Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 28 May 2026 20:03:54 GMT

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.

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The Numbers: Carney, Poilievre and Lewis. Buy or sell?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 21 May 2026 19:19:44 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?

This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.

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Les chiffres : Fréchette fait grimper la CAQ
La CAQ est-elle de retour dans la course ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, nous revenons sur le plus récent sondage Léger, qui mesure une forte amélioration de la satisfaction envers le gouvernement ainsi qu'une remontée caquiste dans les intentions de vote. Nous discutons également de la nouvelle projection Qc125, qui continue de faire du Parti québécois le favori, tout en montrant une course plus complexe et volatile qu'il y a quelques semaines.

Bref, un portrait fascinant d'une opinion publique québécoise en plein mouvement et imprégné d'incertitude...

The Numbers: Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 14 May 2026 19:43:05 GMT

This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government. We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support. Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a byelection-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Carney's got the boomers — and the youths, too?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 07 May 2026 19:25:06 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis?

This week on The Numbers, we take a dive into some of the latest federal polls. We also break down new fundraising numbers and discuss the ongoing Conservative leadership race (and provincial voting intentions) in British Columbia. We then close with a prime ministerial Quiz.

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The Numbers: Trio of vacancies to test Carney, Poilievre and Lewis

Éric Grenier — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 19:40:09 GMT

This past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate Erskine-Smith is also promising to resign his seat once he makes his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (and a provincial nomination) official. These trio of byelections, whenever they are called, will prove to be stiff tests for Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis.

This week on The Numbers, we break down what will be at stake in these three contests and discuss how they might play out on the electoral calendar. We also look at new polls that suggest Doug Ford might be in trouble in Ontario, as well as some new voting and independence numbers out of Alberta. Then, we close with a Quiz submitted by one of our listeners.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre now has time. Is that good or bad?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 19:24:58 GMT

With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals. But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a little on the party’s leader. We also take a look at the national polling scene and break down some new numbers out of Quebec. We then close with a Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Majority means no election soon, right?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 19:28:05 GMT

With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville). We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Liberals sweep byelections, secure majority

Éric Grenier — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 10:05:42 GMT

The Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne. The three wins give Mark Carney a majority government, something the Liberals have not had since 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote tanked across the board and the NDP had a small moral victory with a second-place showing in one of the three contests.

We recorded this extra episode of The Numbers just after we finished our livestream late last night, so our apologies ahead of time if our hot takes are a little … under-cooked. We’ll be well-rested and back at it on Thursday with a regular episode of the podcast!

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The Numbers: Another MP crosses floor to Liberals ahead of Monday's byelections

Éric Grenier — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 17:38:18 GMT

It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.

Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal byelections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Rarely are byelections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?

Join us for a livestream of the byelection results on YouTube, starting at 8:30 PM ET on Monday!

We set you up for Monday’s byelections with some over/unders on this week’s (early) episode of The Numbers. We also break down some of the latest polls and discuss the final days of the CAQ’s leadership race, which comes to a close on Sunday.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Carney's majority, Poilievre's challenge and Lewis's debut

Éric Grenier — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 19:17:43 GMT

Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up.

Stuff is about to get real out there.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.

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The Numbers: Avi Lewis wins

Éric Grenier — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:10:49 GMT

Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here.

LEADERSHIP RESULTS:
- 56.0% - Avi Lewis
- 29.5% - Heather McPherson
- 7.3% - Tanille Johnston
- 5.9% - Rob Ashton
- 1.3% Tony McQuail

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The Numbers: Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 19:25:50 GMT

The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?

This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Have we hit Carney's ceiling and Poilievre's floor?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 19:25:04 GMT

With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a new poll shows which premiers are up and which premiers are down. Then, Philippe has another Quiz.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 12 Mar 2026 19:25:28 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and what it all means for the Liberals and the opposition parties. Is the NDP in serious trouble? What does a majority mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? We also chat about the latest fundraising figures from the NDP leadership contest and break down all of the new federal polls published over the last week. Then, it’s the triomphant return of The Quiz!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Carney, Poilievre go abroad in search of wins

Éric Grenier — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 20:24:19 GMT

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Carney's Liberals are up big in Alberta. Is it for real?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:14:25 GMT

As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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The Numbers: Poilievre on the ropes as Carney's majority in sight

Éric Grenier — Thu, 19 Feb 2026 20:46:14 GMT

With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within sight of the majority government they were denied in the 2025 federal election.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jeneroux’s floor-crossing, the over-turning of the Terrebonne election result and the potential resignation of NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is reportedly eyeing greener (or more orange?) pastures at the provincial level. We also have some new polls to discuss out of British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec.

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The Numbers: Liberals in majority territory, but there's no election — yet?

Éric Grenier — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 20:09:46 GMT

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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