<![CDATA[The Writ: The Numbers Podcast]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/s/the-numbers-podcasthttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VGo9!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95508bdd-1071-48f5-9c15-e49490e104de_573x573.pngThe Writ: The Numbers Podcasthttps://www.thewrit.ca/s/the-numbers-podcastSubstackTue, 28 Jul 2026 06:58:16 GMT<![CDATA[The Numbers: Will Trump's new tariffs move the polls?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-trumps-new-tariffshttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-trumps-new-tariffsThu, 23 Jul 2026 20:01:21 GMTAn otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada. How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the potential impact of another tariff fight on Mark Carney’s poll numbers. We also break down the results of a provincial byelection in Manitoba that has more good news for Premier Wab Kinew, and chat about some new polls on the popularity of premiers David Eby and Danielle Smith. We then answer some member questions from the mailbag, with the full segment being available to Patreon members here.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Maybe we were wrong?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-maybe-we-were-wronghttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-maybe-we-were-wrongThu, 16 Jul 2026 19:13:24 GMTWe’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead. So, we start with some mea culpas, and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further down the line.

In addition, on this week’s episode of The Numbers we breakdown the latest federal poll numbers, as well as a new survey on how Canadians feel about the construction of new pipelines. We also try to make sense of yet another poll out of Nova Scotia that paints yet another different portrait of the province’s political landscape. Then, we close with a Green-hued Quiz.

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE ON APPLE PODCASTS

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: New leader, who dis?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-new-leader-who-dishttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-new-leader-who-disThu, 09 Jul 2026 19:57:56 GMTDon’t you know who I am?

For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words. We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: New Leaders Draft]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-new-leaders-drafthttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-new-leaders-draftThu, 02 Jul 2026 19:54:15 GMTWith the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.

The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.

Who will win the first edition of the New Leaders Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Will it be a cruel summer for Carney or Poilievre?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-it-be-a-cruel-summerhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-it-be-a-cruel-summerThu, 25 Jun 2026 19:40:11 GMTWith the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the new federal polls that have been published over the last week. We also break down some provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and New Brunswick, as well as discuss the results of a provincial byelection in Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe is back with a 1979-themed Quiz.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Aiming for redemption in the Quiz]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-aiming-for-redemptionhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-aiming-for-redemptionThu, 18 Jun 2026 21:08:36 GMTThe summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another challenging Quiz. Can I get any redemption after being humbled so thoroughly?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: A new polling low for Poilievre?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-a-new-polling-low-forhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-a-new-polling-low-forThu, 11 Jun 2026 21:26:42 GMTMore polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux. Then, we take a look at the approval ratings of provincial premiers, including Doug Ford’s dropping support. We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals. Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-orange-crush-or-orangehttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-orange-crush-or-orangeThu, 04 Jun 2026 19:32:32 GMTIn one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.

But what’s really going on?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward. Then, Philippe has a Quiz.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-albertas-referendumhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-will-albertas-referendumThu, 28 May 2026 20:03:54 GMTPremier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Carney, Poilievre and Lewis. Buy or sell?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carney-poilievre-andhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carney-poilievre-andThu, 21 May 2026 19:19:44 GMTMark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?

This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.

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Les chiffres : Fréchette fait grimper la CAQ

La CAQ est-elle de retour dans la course ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, nous revenons sur le plus récent sondage Léger, qui mesure une forte amélioration de la satisfaction envers le gouvernement ainsi qu'une remontée caquiste dans les intentions de vote. Nous discutons également de la nouvelle projection Qc125, qui continue de faire du Parti québécois le favori, tout en montrant une course plus complexe et volatile qu'il y a quelques semaines.

Bref, un portrait fascinant d'une opinion publique québécoise en plein mouvement et imprégné d'incertitude...

]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-is-smith-playing-withhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-is-smith-playing-withThu, 14 May 2026 19:43:05 GMTThis week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government. We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support. Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a byelection-themed Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Carney's got the boomers — and the youths, too?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carneys-got-the-boomershttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carneys-got-the-boomersThu, 07 May 2026 19:25:06 GMTMark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis?

This week on The Numbers, we take a dive into some of the latest federal polls. We also break down new fundraising numbers and discuss the ongoing Conservative leadership race (and provincial voting intentions) in British Columbia. We then close with a prime ministerial Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Trio of vacancies to test Carney, Poilievre and Lewis]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-trio-of-vacancies-tohttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-trio-of-vacancies-toThu, 30 Apr 2026 19:40:09 GMTThis past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate Erskine-Smith is also promising to resign his seat once he makes his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (and a provincial nomination) official. These trio of byelections, whenever they are called, will prove to be stiff tests for Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis.

This week on The Numbers, we break down what will be at stake in these three contests and discuss how they might play out on the electoral calendar. We also look at new polls that suggest Doug Ford might be in trouble in Ontario, as well as some new voting and independence numbers out of Alberta. Then, we close with a Quiz submitted by one of our listeners.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre now has time. Is that good or bad?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-pierre-poilievre-nowhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-pierre-poilievre-nowThu, 23 Apr 2026 19:24:58 GMTWith a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals. But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a little on the party’s leader. We also take a look at the national polling scene and break down some new numbers out of Quebec. We then close with a Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Majority means no election soon, right?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-majority-means-no-electionhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-majority-means-no-electionThu, 16 Apr 2026 19:28:05 GMTWith the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville). We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Liberals sweep byelections, secure majority]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-liberals-sweep-byelectionshttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-liberals-sweep-byelectionsTue, 14 Apr 2026 10:05:42 GMTThe Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne. The three wins give Mark Carney a majority government, something the Liberals have not had since 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote tanked across the board and the NDP had a small moral victory with a second-place showing in one of the three contests.

We recorded this extra episode of The Numbers just after we finished our livestream late last night, so our apologies ahead of time if our hot takes are a little … under-cooked. We’ll be well-rested and back at it on Thursday with a regular episode of the podcast!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Another MP crosses floor to Liberals ahead of Monday's byelections]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-another-mp-crosses-floorhttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-another-mp-crosses-floorWed, 08 Apr 2026 17:38:18 GMTIt was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.

Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal byelections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Rarely are byelections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?

Join us for a livestream of the byelection results on YouTube, starting at 8:30 PM ET on Monday!

We set you up for Monday’s byelections with some over/unders on this week’s (early) episode of The Numbers. We also break down some of the latest polls and discuss the final days of the CAQ’s leadership race, which comes to a close on Sunday.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Carney's majority, Poilievre's challenge and Lewis's debut]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carneys-majority-poilievreshttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-carneys-majority-poilievresThu, 02 Apr 2026 19:17:43 GMTThree federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up.

Stuff is about to get real out there.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Avi Lewis wins]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-avi-lewis-winshttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-avi-lewis-winsSun, 29 Mar 2026 17:10:49 GMTAvi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here.

  • LEADERSHIP RESULTS:

    • 56.0% - Avi Lewis

    • 29.5% - Heather McPherson

    • 7.3% - Tanille Johnston

    • 5.9% - Rob Ashton

    • 1.3% Tony McQuail

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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]]><![CDATA[The Numbers: Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?]]>https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-is-the-ndp-leadershiphttps://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-numbers-is-the-ndp-leadershipThu, 26 Mar 2026 19:25:50 GMTThe most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?

This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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